A little less than 5 years ago this board came together right before eBay’s quarterly press conference. Friends and foes were invited to join up in the contest and submit their estimates supported by their reasons.
After the success the first contest had, it ran for well over a few more quarters. Suddenly Yahoo changed the format of its Finance Board Message center and the contest came to a sudden death.
Today I will try to revive the contest which not only was fun in its concept, not only it was informative of the reasons written by contestants, but also a certain sense of peace was realized among all regular posters.
I’d like to mention that were several bylaws and these bylaws will be implemented again as I try to restart this engine. And they are:
1. The deadline to submit your estimate would be Wednesday January 20th 12:00 p.m. PST.
2. Only regulars can attend this contest. Again whether you feel friendly towards anyone (including myself) or not you must put aside your feelings and do this free of any personal feelings.
3. Any new Yahoo ID would be accepted if the ID is referred by a regular and accepted by the administration of the contest (me).
4. Should you accept to attend this contest in your post you must write your estimate on EPS. You could look into Yahoo’s Analysts Estimates to get an idea for this quarter. You then would support your estimate in your own words.
5. Since many estimates would be same as others’ there is a tie breaker. The tie breaker is your estimate of what would be the price of eBay stock at the close of Thursday January 21st (a day after the announcement). So in effect you would write two numbers, (a) EPS for 4Q09, and (b) eBay’s price at the close of Thursday.
6. After you submit your post, the administrator (me) would post a confirmation of your post thus you could be assured that your numbers have been received.
7. And the Prize? Well, the prize would be what it was back then. The winner would get to get the whole stage (if you will) to himself/herself and write about any topic he/she wishes. The topic could be about politics, social issues, art, sports, … anything.
The past winners were Fly, Deci/D-mad (they shared), elike and Treasurer (I hope I remember his name right).
Finally, there’s a chance many would shine this and not attend, in that case my vote would be the only one. Point is to relight this torch.
After carefully examining the estimates given by contestants, a winner has been selected. The winning estimate EPS number was exactly as eBay declared in its yesterday afternoon press conference.
Therefore, it's my honor to hand Mr. bayes the champion trophy of this hard fought for contest. Mr. bayes apparently is riding high lately with his series of predictions in the investing community and outside of it.
Mr. bayes please take a good care of this trophy until next time.
You now have won the prize. As mentioned the prize is for you to come on center stage and give a speech about a topic you feel the world should hear you out.
As a tip: In the past the winners became a little nervous and dumbfounded. I recommend to take your time and let go. Be free and remember all the memebers of this club would be fully supportive of your act.
You are to give out this post some time after tomorrow close of trading day (Friday January 22, 2010).
So one again:
Congratulations Mr. bayes!
Well, this trophy is stunning. It looks brand new which leads me to believe that I do not have to hand it over to the next winner. But you seem to allude to the fact that I do. Let me know.
I would like to thank you for the contest. If I can win this contest anyone can. First off, there were only a few people in the contest and second, as you can surmise, I have never known much about stocks. I have only been doing well in the stock market because I followed the advice of my brother. Since you say I “have the floor”, I would like to repost part of my entry post from yesterday (next paragraph), not give a speech, but explain how this ebay stock got me rolling. Unlike most here, my ebay story is a rewarding one.
“Elike, I got out of ebay awhile back after holding it for a long long time. I exited just in time on advice from my brother. I will never forget how much money ebay has made me, money which is still working miracles for me with aapl. I am not an Apple consumer but my brother is and he convinced me to get out of ebay in early 2008, take all my ebay shares and sink them into aapl. I did and almost died! Aapl plunged from 125 to 82. I stubbornly and painfully held and am now being rewarded handsomely. Aapl is now at all time highs. I have ebay to thank because the small fortress from ebay has turned into the mother lode.”
Obviously, what a “mother lode” means for me is completely different from what a “mother lode” means for others. But (for example), if one’s mortgage is paid off and their whole family already "taken care of", an amount of……oh let’s take a number…….$450,000 let’s say………could be considered a “mother lode” (principal supply) for one in such a position. Of course, one also may think the original amount put into the stock market was a good fortification to begin with and has now just been amazingly enhanced. As stated already, these are just examples and are not to be taken as someone puffing their chest out!
I originally put a good deal of money into ebay and I put a good deal into it shortly thereafter. As I said yesterday I later I sunk everything from ebay into aapl. I almost got out of appl several times. I kept telling myself to relax and wait it out. I kept risking it and risking it. I had many sleepless nights. I’m glad I did wait it out.
Years ago when I came to this board I announced I was here to learn, and I have. There were five posters here (there may have been more) who immediately gave this novice trader help. “Greenscan” (I have never known whom he is/was), “cr1melord”, “madbezos”, “flyktning” and John. Much of the small amount I know about trading started with these gentlemen. I appreciate their help. I have learned much indirectly from you as well Elike and I appreciate your help also.
Elike, if I can do well in the stock market anyone can. It seems to me that RISK and LUCK are a big part of it.
I will not forget what ebay has done for me and that is the main point of this rambling communication.
Again, thank you for the contest.
Well in all honesty the idea of estimating the EPS was implied to be based on proforma basis. The administration took much time in reviewing your request for an instant reply and after carefully reviewing the comments it was determined the estimates should've been proforma. It was decided that had we wanted to base the numbers on GAAP we should've explicitly mentioned such. In support of the final decision the great administration pointed to how analysts estimate their numbers which are based on proforma. Furthermore, proforma shows the number on the core of the business rather than including other events such as extraordinary events and so forth.
Those who live in the past are condemned to relive their nightmares - elike. Yes elike the philosopher. What? You don't believe me? Thats' fine. I ask you this then: Why did Hollywood make a movie called Book of Eli(ke)? Why? See? Case closed. Next issue please.
Thanks, I knew you would udnerstand!
"Yes, you did run some contests, but they were not in conflict scheduling of the ones I ran. In fact the controversy Fly wrote about occurred on the contest I ran. Do you not remember when you stepped in and made it clear that the EPS estimates should have been based on proforma? I could be wrong since I don't have your photographic memory. But I have this feeling that it was you."
Your comments above are correct.
Enjoy your evening!
My estimate for EPS = 0.41 cents and my estimate for eBay price after the close of Thursday Jan. 21st = $23.92
My reasons are: Historically eBay has been conservative in giving out its own estimates so 0.40 cents appear to be too low, given the fact that 4th quarter of every year eBay has performed maginificantly. But with so many uncertainties on the Street I couldn't estimate the price to go any higher after one day of trading. I'd like to mention that 2010 guideline from eBay would be awfully important in how the value of the stock would be determined, and I couldn't venture any guess on that.
Sounds like rules and conditions that ebay would implement. Maybe Donahoe will offer you a job. Sounds like you already have the experience needed to confuse both buyer and seller.
Are you a Ebay University Graduate?