I owned 40K shares in ENZN from 92 to 2000. I attended every annual meeting and the room was full of Yahoo board participants. Ever hear of network marketing? One fellow there worked for the NYPD and all the guys in the precinct had their portfolios full of ENZN because of word spread from US.
If you think many of the board readers here haven't spread the word your a fool. I know 20+ people who are in it because I told them about it long ago. You short termers don't understand.
When my mother died the company ENZN sent flowers so they followed the board. The story goes on. Don't underestimate the power of the posts. You would be surprised. There are many who read and don't contribute.
You are an idiot. Really? You think that posting some garbage here about SGEN by anyone would have the slightest impact on the stock price?
I post here because I have an interest in how SGN 35 does through the approval process and sought the opinion of others. Why, because I invested in IMGN as you have. 30% of my 401K is in that stock and has been for the last 2 years. But I don't just invest in long term stories like this. I will also use options to try and take advantage of these binary dates around ODAC meetings, PDUFA dates, etc... If the data says the outcome will likely be negative, buy puts, if positive buy calls. Profit from short term trades is just as good as profit from long term held positions.
Apparently the agenda behind your posts(hidden)were to build some downward sell off so you could profit on untruthful conclusions. OK you made some cash on your puts.
As far as Black box, seems like a trend. Camcord says sell with a $10 target.
BOA says buy with a target $20
Piper I think has at target of $22??
BBUUUT>>>>> you know better. As I said, we don't have all the info. I trade Biotech exclusively and I can guarantee my return would be near impossible to match,..Luck? maybe but I, unlike you, don't play short term. If the companies management has talent and the science is new and promising, that's all we can play on. The rest is nothing more than a Range. Too many variables for exact estimates.
I think Fib 1235 already has mentioned that the pipeline might be valued at roughly a billion. So far we have ignored the milestone payments. The Street tends to look at them as one time events rather than a recurring revenue stream that an approved drug would provide. But you are correct, all together they are a significant amount of money to SGEN.
Approval of SGN 35 will be more than just meaningful in that SGEN has a drug on the market, but will also completely validate their conjugate platform and potentially allow them to negotiate much stronger deals in the future, plus I think it would make the things in their pipeline more valuable as well.
I would expect to see some new evaluations from the analysts that have followed this stock once SGN 35 is approved based on what you have pointed out.
I'm a bit curious what you guys considering Seattle Genetics revenues think about their ancillary revenues might be. Those achieved with their collaborations and resulting milestones and royalties. I recall some deals mentioning milestones in the hundreds of millions of dollars. What premium might be placed on Seattle Genetics intellectual property? If the science is accepted, might that not become more valuable going forward? What is it all worth?
What do you think the subject of this entire thread was about? The valuation of SGEN. How about several other posts wondering what the value of SGN-35 alone might be if approved and if not approved?
Apparently in your opinion it is all just a big black box mystery until the market tells us that it is what it is by the stock price? Good luck with your approach to investing and keeping such an open mind to the opinons of others.
I wasn't going to respond but I don't think anyone here invited or asked an analyst to comment on the earning side potential on SGN-35. One thing I've learned in my many years of doing this is the analyst are just another body with an opinion and unless they have a inside track on non public info, they vary greatly in their analyst.
A clear example is a friend of mine sold his large position in SGEN a few years back a $4 for a significant loss because his analyst friend paniced and sold. They all bought it back this past month for $19-20.
In order for the analysts to have a educated guess in Biotech sector, they need all the information. No one knows the price they are going to charge. secondly this is the most difficult sector to discount as there are many variables. How well will the drug be accepted? how many people will comedown with the disease going forward. Relapse, off lable, so on and so forth. I believe the market to be significantly greater than projected. That's my hope and opinion. I value my opinion greter than most of the analst reports. I've been here since the stock was $4. We shall see.
You folks are really frustrating. IMGN and T-DM1 is noted only for comparison as it is the only other company other than SGEN with an ADC platform, and you yourself said you are invested in both, thus I figured there would be some interest there.
Any attempt at trying to put any kind of number valuations to SGN-35 has been met with nit picking and snipes of how flawed the analysis is. You invite the analysis so there might be an intelligent discussion, then complain how utterly wrong the assumptions are and point out all of the things that are missing in said analysis.
Good luck to all of you invested with SGEN.
I'm not arguing with you but, AGAIN, your reference to IMGN is more of a pump than comparison. If TDM-1 was approved and we were using it as a model for valuation, then the discussion would have merit. They are a year or two behind where SGEN is so where is your point????
Second point, you can GUESS as to market potential because the estimates have been all over the place.
The reality is
1)SGN-35 price hasn't been set. Clay clearly stated there would be premium pricing so any premium goes directly to pre-tax profit. Note these companies go years without paying taxes because of carry forward losses.
2) Analyst Generally do not figure in off label usage which may be very significant. I read a report earlier this year that some Oncologist make offer SGN-35 to other CD-30 expressed cancers. This is a significant wild card. First Line treatment maybe in addition.
Although IMGN has no bearing on SGEN at this point for a logical comparison, we should check the royalty arrangement between Roche and IMGN? is it NET.. sales or Net earnings? there is a significant difference. I've seen it both ways.