The shorts thesis is sales of adcetris will disappoint , The longs thesis is that sales will exceed expectations . The proof will be in the #s which will unfold over the next several qtr's!Nothing as to the real size of this market has been proved! My guess based on some of the long research is it will exceed despite the cost because of tremendous efficacy and ease of delivery with few side effects!
Surprisingly the shorts here have a real lack of understanding of the deeper clinical issues at play. I say surprisingly because the shorts usually do their homework and a position this large should not be dismissed.
Shorts know that ABVD is cheap and effective (90%+ cure) so they believe that there is no place in a first line setting for adcetris. What they don't understand is the huge interest in reducing the long term health effects of current treatment. The 20 year old Hodgkin patient (and there are plenty of them) will eventually become the 40 year old heart failure or pulmonary failure patient (bleomycin). These so called "late effects" are a known problem. The interest in reducing them can't be understated. If it is as effective as current standard treatment, adcetris use will explode.
Although the first few quarters may give you some idea, the fact is that when they move to a first line treatment this will ratchet up the sales and with other uses the sales will continue to go up. It is questionable whether they will know what the true demand is until much further down the road.
Having a sales force in place with sales goals should allow us to see what management believes and whether sales targets are being met or increasing. I would agree that we should be ahead of what the what many of the shorts believe it to be.