Not sure about Adcetris sales forecast. Off-label use could always provide a surprise upside. I think the Abbott (25M), two ph2 drugs for Roche (maybe 10-15M), and Eu approval if it comes in November (25M from Takeda), will all go in for next qtr, but I am not really sure. Only thing I know is more money seems to be coming into SGEN than IMGN at this time. CLDX drug may also get accelerated approval. I don't know if IMGN is a more attractive buyout candidate than SGEN.
IMGN sell-off was probably overdone because in the end, T-DM1 sales will be exceeding 700M anyway for US so IMGN still gets the 5%. Perhaps analysts were hoping for starting at 5% and somewhere at 7% for higher sales. With priority review decision pending for T-DM1 and eventual approval (hopefully before Christmas), right about now maybe a good time to get back in, but my guess is always as "bad" as yours. $8 maybe too low of an entry target. 70% of HER2+ patients don't respond to Herceptin. Thing is, I think Roche should just drop Herceptin and Perjeta and focus on T-DM1. They're just trying to squeeze as much of patients and insurers monies from less potent drugs. FDA is not helping either.
Well put. Although we have no clue to where the bottom is, will avoid the analysts who keep sticking needles into TDM-1. It should still "Play in Peoria" and work out nicely. Forget the hype and hang in there.
Have been a been a fan of SGEN ever since Bill Gates was a big investor. When he bailed out I still hung in there and it will be going in a long term upward movement. My only problem is that I'm short term.....age wise that is (-:
Thanks. I'm sure your right about the 8 bucks being too low. This may indeed be the right time.
Some Analysts are projecting just 300k in royalties the first year there. That seems about right to me. Herceptin's patent expires in 2014 so you'd think they would be wanting to get T-DM1 to front- line ASAP. I thought it would produce 250ml per year at peak. Now it looks like just half that. Maybe IMGN would be better off to just monetize the royalties and concentrate on their in-house candidates like SGEN.
I read one paper where it says that HER2 resistance/refractory mBC is 200 patients a year. It looks like Sendek is guessing it would be 100 patients to be treated in 2013. Maybe your $8 target isn't so far off. I'll add more if it dips to around 10, and sell my higher buys later.
BMR, we still can't figure out where the 300k in 2013 royalties came from. 300k will be 3% of 10M. If T-DM1 is priced at 90k per year, 10M would be revenue from only 111 patients. You said that seems about right to you. Is the 111 patients for Herceptin-relapsed/refractory patients about right you think? That seems like a low number. Do you have a good basis for that number?
In the EMILIA studies, they enrolled 991 patients from Feb09-Oct12 (32 months). 30 pts per month = 360 pts per year at the very least. I am sure that there were a lot more patients who wanted to be in that trial. Hmm, in 26 countries though. 270 from US for 32 mo = 100 pts per year. Hmm, maybe you are right, assuming they had a hard time recruiting enough patients in the US for the trial. However, my impression was there were a lot more who wanted to be in the trial and there were not enough trial centers in the US.