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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

  • slumdawg2011 slumdawg2011 Oct 26, 2012 2:21 PM Flag


    IMGN tanking after mgmt finally decided to announce details of previously "undeclared" royalty terms. Glasnost!

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    • blackmenrock Oct 27, 2012 10:14 PM Flag

      Hey Dawg. Hi
      I'm not currently invested over there but follow it closely. SGEN's newer royalty deals are more favorable than the IMGN/Roche deal. Older ones I think are about the same as IMGN's. Plus there are some outright 50/50 collaborations here. I think IMGN is toast for awhile. If it hit's $8 I think I'll get back in. They have more buyout potential.
      I'm slowly accumulating here. About 20% of where I'd like to be.
      What's your guess on what this will do on earnings?

      • 1 Reply to blackmenrock
      • Not sure about Adcetris sales forecast. Off-label use could always provide a surprise upside. I think the Abbott (25M), two ph2 drugs for Roche (maybe 10-15M), and Eu approval if it comes in November (25M from Takeda), will all go in for next qtr, but I am not really sure. Only thing I know is more money seems to be coming into SGEN than IMGN at this time. CLDX drug may also get accelerated approval. I don't know if IMGN is a more attractive buyout candidate than SGEN.

        IMGN sell-off was probably overdone because in the end, T-DM1 sales will be exceeding 700M anyway for US so IMGN still gets the 5%. Perhaps analysts were hoping for starting at 5% and somewhere at 7% for higher sales. With priority review decision pending for T-DM1 and eventual approval (hopefully before Christmas), right about now maybe a good time to get back in, but my guess is always as "bad" as yours. $8 maybe too low of an entry target. 70% of HER2+ patients don't respond to Herceptin. Thing is, I think Roche should just drop Herceptin and Perjeta and focus on T-DM1. They're just trying to squeeze as much of patients and insurers monies from less potent drugs. FDA is not helping either.

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