I am – skeptical – earnings conference call had “holes”.
Good cash, better management and based on “earlier” trial data (although a small patient population) – IMUC has “good” prospects for clinical success. Interim analysis of the ongoing ICT-107 P2 clinical trial and of the interim analysis by the data monitoring committee is anticipated in Q2/13 and the first top-line results are is expected to be available by the end of this year. IMUC completed enrollment for the P2 trial of ICT-107 in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma, and that trial continues to progress well. 2 INDs, for ICT-121 and ICT-140 are currently active, with plans underway to begin clinical trials for both programs. IMUC brought a 2nd manufacturing site on-line for ICT-107, advancing its ability to meet the needs of further clinical testing. The controversy is over their claim that they could possible treat 75% of patients with “glio”. The actual treated patients in the trial would indicate that only about 50% would make the cut. The problem is IMUC has never given an adequate explanation of why they still think it could be 75%. This RegMed sector is erratic in reference to trial recruitment - I like others are still perplexed by the “screened” versus “enrolled” question … concerning the “push” potential of forcing a “statistical” outcome. IMUC was closed at $2.80 up $0.08 or +2.94% to $2.80 in a 50 day moving average of $2.41 and a 200 day of $2.32 and a short ratio of 8.1% of a 46.96 share float. Consensus is a … “Strong BUY” and MLV boosted its outlook from $3.50 to $5.00 with a BUY ranking. IMUC is now trading above moving averages – 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 …very bullish indicators … but, I am – skeptical – earnings conference call had “holes”. Traders are always selling into strength and IMUC has had a good run since 1/2/13 – the question is – can it last … in this market? IMUC will have to raise cash … $26 M in the till but, with a $3 M quarterly burn – it won’t be immediate but, it is on the horizon to ramp up trials and compound m
The biggest hole that I see is in your argument. I believe that you are incorrectly modeling expectations of buy on the rumor, sell on the news behavior. While dilution will be a threat to supress market cap, it will come down to whether people believe that IMUC will be approved on Phase II or not. The stock is worth several billion dollars market cap treating 50% of the patients with this vaccine. It will be given to every single patient. You are talking about 5,000 patients a year in the US times 100,000 a patient and thats just in the first year of their treatment. If this is going to be approved on Phase II results, which the market, including even the officers (publically anyway), haven't stated, it won't be near this price. It's a buyout candidate at this price. If people think it's getting approved in Phase II, even with the threat of dilution, its going to be a 500 million market cap until results hit. You really can't be blinded to the results.
I think your projected patient cost for the vacine is way high..Provegene is around $93,000. I beleive the projected cost for ICT-107 is around $18,000? The manufacturning process occurs one time? DD I am sure you can elaborate..GLTA