Over the course of the last few weeks I have seen some threads and replies from people that seriously make me wonder if they really do invest their money based on a posting or response by some random username on the Yahoo message board.
If you believe what you read in even half of the postings or threads that appear here, or have sold shares based on the advice/information/scare tactics that some anonymous posters use, then ultimately you get what you deserve.
My point being is this, IMUCs precipitous fall in the last few days is due to a combination of three very common themes in the world of biotech investing. In no particular order: Under-educated or naïve shareholders that don’t quite understand the science and are disappointed by very positive announcements. Shorts that are looking to capitalize on an assumed “lack of catalysts” and disinterest until trial results are announced. And the big MM’s manipulating the stock by offering 100 shares of the stock below bid in an attempt (so far successful) to acquire thousands of nervous investors shares at a significant discount to what they should be trading at. Unfortunately this is currently what’s happening to IMUC.
IMUC’s current (but not for long) problem is that its retail to institutional ownership right now stands at approximately 80/20. To put it very politely, retail investors are a nervous and stupid bunch, especially when they don’t fully understand the technology behind what they are investing in. A few months ago I began to notice the current price-manipulation taking place and I decided to do some research.
Did you know that both BLACKSTONE and VANGUARD significantly increased their positions in IMUC in the last few months? Blackstone currently owns more than 2 million shares and Vanguard just TRIPLED their position by ADDING another 400,000 shares of IMUC. Hmm…why would two highly regarded investment firms be adding to their positions and buying hundreds of thousands of shares of IMUC?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I see; the drop is due to either naivety, shorts or the dreaded market makers.
I think you left out the bogyman, Satan, socialist Islamics and generational decline of conservative Christian values.
Well said. I am sometimes amused by some of the posts. One poster went from but-hold-sell-hold within 30 days. Many are just traders, some are shorts. But there are many longs that I do respect and enjoy their posts and opinions. I am in long regardless. We have a big winner unless the science fails. I trust Yu and management and think they are right on with their projections.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Jona makes some very valid points and I get this "cycle" the market plays however, I wouldn't call it "nervous" at least in my world. I sold out on the last "news" and will buy back in shortly. I'm really not one to "avg down".
You can tell who is serious about what they post and who isn’t by clicking on their names and reading the quality of their posts. If they sell and think they can find better opportunities then all I can say is “good luck”.
To ignore the bears just because you bought too much of 1 stock is silly. It’s your job to investigate if what they say has any creditability and act accordingly or ignore their post because they’re frustrated or just bored.
If someone says IMUC is going to $2 when its at 2.40 then you should see if they were right on any of any their previous predictions then say, “hey they were right the last few times, might be a good idea to get some money ready to buy shares” rather then the simple idea of saying “ooh that’s just a shortie, just put’em on the ignore list”.
You’re also going to have to evaluate how serious and how sophisticated the posters are on that particular board to see how useful the board is going to be. I’ll never forget the posts I wrote about WWE where it was around $7(?) and loved it for a rebound back to $9-10 but questioned that hefty dividend by their earnings and cash flow and also the didn’t like the bullish nonsense of the ceo starting a WWE network or really even expanding bigtime into foreign markets. The replies except for 1 person were that of a 5 year old, look at that board today, it will say one person has stinky feet or something worse! LOL. It’s a useless board.
But I’m more afraid of the bulls that write tons of things to get retail investors into a stock and not point out any faults whatsoever in a stock. Its like a salesperson showing you a car or home and they give you the pitch to buy but never tell you about the negatives and a few months later you’re underwater because you just had to have that shiny car that needs a new transmission or that beautiful house that needs roof repair.
You have to talk about the negatives of any investment or you are a fool, plain and simple. From there you can start to actually weigh the risks verses the reward. This is why I question anyone if they are too positive or too negative. But again, I take what they have to offer and see if plays a role in my overall investment plan and go from there. I suggest you do the same regardless of where you get your information.
Gimme a break, "over the course of the past two weeks" you've been in a dark bunker somewhere busily bashing or pumping your latest target. Exact same drivel pasted from the last time you leeches wandered through the landscape. Have a nice day!
These two are just the beginning of the influx of institutional ownership that is about to FLOOD into IMUC. Stock Market 101 will tell you that most reputable investment firms are historically very smart investors. It will also tell you that E-trade Larry and other day traders/shorts are for the most part dumb and lose their money. As of right now E-Trade Larrys own about 80% of the company and have been very content to sell low and lose their money the past few days by handing their shares to the big boys.
The funny thing in all of this is that the main reason that people have been selling the stock has been because they fear a lack of catalysts and are subsequently selling their shares, mostly to the big investment firms. In a few weeks from now these same investment firms will be required by the SEC to disclose their holdings and purchases. When it’s revealed (warning: you may need to do your own due diligence here instead of just hoping disco or jet chicken answers your post) that several more large firms have added shares hand-over-fist again this quarter and the institutional ownership percentage risen even more, what do you think is the missing “catalyst” that propels the stock to new highs in anticipation of trial results…Exactly, the mere mention of the big boys having more skin in the game by some Seeking Alpha, Street, or Motley Fool writer/hack is the missing catalyst retail investors feared would never come and big investment firms KNEW would come and count on to make their money (See CUR). Not that anyone can’t do this simple research and find out this information, nor am I implying that firms collude with writers, its simply that these articles are some retail investors sole sources of information that they use when determining whether or not to buy a stock.
For the most part the big boys have sat out of IMUC thus far due in part to its relatively recent up-listing and their waiting on phase II confirmation that ICT-107 is safe and works.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Most "big investors", by rule, don't touch stocks under $5. From talking to IR @ IMUC it sounds like the "blackout" will end soon. It's pretty obvious, to me anyway, that this stock is being manipulated downward. Perhaps your appearance signals a swing in the other direction...
Now that they have that confirmation and know that results from a potentially game-changing and revolutionary GBM technology are a mere months away, what’s stopping them from adding to the positions they either started months ago or were considering starting before interim results were announced? Especially as “Immunotherapy” and its impressive OS curves were arguably the biggest story coming out of ASCO this year. All they have to do is sit on their shares for the next few months and watch as they appreciate into the run-up and become easy multi-baggers.
Do yourself a favor and resist the urge to sell your shares of IMUC. I have seen this kind of manipulation before in several bio-tech stocks right before they have soared (ACAD comes to mind recently) and after reading some of the postings here I thought maybe, just maybe, this one time I could save just one investor some of their hard earned cash. Don’t kick yourself by selling low now and let IMUC be the one that got away.
Don’t be scared by the “It’s the ATM” rumors or the “Why hasn’t there been insider buys” fear postings Ive seen as anyone that has done 5 minutes of due diligence can tell you that IMUC is flush with cash now, does not currently need money, has a historically low burn and money to operate well into 2014 and will not be using as much money this year as they did last year according to their latest CC. There is absolutely no point in IMUC diluting the market with more shares to gain more money that it won’t need for a long time.
Sentiment: Strong Buy