I cant see why anyone would bother buying this stock in 2013 based on what POT management has said this morning. I also question the timing of their dividend increase. Instead, I would have prefered a reassment of their capital spending going forward. I have said it before Doyle has lost credibility and needs to be replaced asap.
There are a number of reasons why buying POT shares in 2013 makes a lot of sense. Indeed, millions of shares were purchased today with full knowledge of what the Q4 results were and what the forecast for 2013 looked like. So quite a few folks take issue with your dour view of the company. As for the dividend increase, management has been saying for at least a year that dividend increases were de rigeur and would ramp up. Or didn't you get the memo? As for the CAPEX that is ongoing, sure, one can quarrel with its merits but keep in mind that the only reason the company is in a position to sell what they are likely to ship out this year is precisely as a result of the CAPEX program initiated several years ago. So at least a good part of it has to be viewed as well timed and I am not in a position to gainsay that the balance of it will never be put to good use. CEO Doyle has perhaps lost credibility with you but I would venture very few others. He is the doyen of CEOs in the industry and everybody knows it. The idea that he could be replaced with someone better, more knowledgeable and effective is ludicrous. OK, now for the reasons why buying the stock now makes sense.
Despite today's bad news report, the stock hardly got dusted. Part of the reason is that even as the growth story is taking longer to materialize, the value story is coming into sight. The stock yield on the stock is good and is only going to get better as CAPEX continues to decline. And the more it increases, the less likely the stock is going to suffer the kind of declines that often accompany growth stocks that can't make their targets and/or meet the Street's expectations. The other noteworthy reason to buy now is that if the fert stocks take off, it is better to own them sooner or later. CEO Doyle is talking in terms of the next 7-10 years, not the next weekend. Perhaps that is not good enough for an 'Are we there yet?' person but I have no problem sitting back, collecting my dividends and watching the future unfold.
I can't see why anyone would bother writing this if they have a personal SELL rating on POT. You'd rather they reassess their capital spending vs. increasing the dividend. They probably have 'reassessed' it, just because they haven't increased it to the level you prfer does not mean they haven't looked at it. Same thing about replacing Doyle or are you offering your services?