Google this for confirmation, don't take it as fact, but posted on a financial web page is the following "Joining the rest of the Street, Goldman Sachs downgrades the entire Fertilizer sector to Cautious from Neutral. In a new research report, the Goldman analyst addresses new questions that have emerged. In particular, investors have little visibility on the residual impact behind Uralkali's volumes-over-price strategy as peers struggle to maintain market share. The report also suggests that the $300/metric ton (which is the price of potash that the majority of the Street is using as an input for models) could go lower.
In short, valuations are obviously lower at these levels as the stocks have sold off significantly since the announcement, but GS believes that it is still too early to step in. With mining peers trading at 5.5-6x EV/EBITDA, there is 30%+ downside.
Specifically, GS is lowering its rating of Intrepid Potash (IPI:$13.30,00$0.52,004.07%) to Sell from Neutral and lowering its target price to $9 from $20.
comparing POT to other over-leveraged miners (e.g., precious metal sector) is pretty useless....the multiple depends on the balance sheet and POT's is pristine...of course, GS always has investor's best interests at heart
they won't keep costs the same. they'll lay off 10000s of people - and let the govts deal w/ that aspect of frothy world. not to worry though -- all those people laid off can become herbalife distributors right?