1. The company continues to UPOD, extending the string of record quarters on revenue and earnings growth and consistently beating guidance and consensus.
2. ebitda continues to surpass guidance and consensus.
3. Company has ample flexibility to ramp buybacks with previously announced plans to ramp to well beyond 10% incremental repurchases prior to EOY. Current Q buybacks likely to surpass street estimates.
4. Unspoken, poorly understood float compression program only just beginning. Pulled borrow extension likely to come precisely on track with substantial increase in company share repurchases, including imminent leveraged buyback program due to be announced Monday (based on Davidson analyst's published comments of "prior to end of September.
5. Company likely to significantly outperform guidance again this quarter.
6. Well publicized short positions are likely hedged, but time decay and replacement costs further strain their capacity to continue to restrain upside price movement on institutional volume.
7. Weak retail shorts and daytraders have been thrashed on the strength of the upward price move, yet the aggregate short interest exceeds Ackman's stated position indicating many pm have active SI hedges offsetting larger long positions. In addition to players including Icahn and Stiritz who continue to advocate that the shares are significantly undervalued, these SI hedges represent tremendous firepower that is likely to join the sotrm higher for these shares as soon as the catalysts kick in (call exercises, large OTM put expiry, corporate share repurchases accelerated, and or Dutch/other tenders or strategic transactions announced).
wheels on the short bus go thump thump thump
all through the town
queue up now y'morons... and when the short bus comes by going 80 mph, jump right under that rear axle so we can all laugh as it RIPS to $90/share. LOL
temporary blip on the chart due to Ackman's noise, DC mess, and pm hedging out huge ytd gains pending DC resolution already resolving favorably...
This week we will likely see HLF and another hundred or so of the stocks that got hammered on the DC nonsense and hedge funds protecting the year's gains all get back to work for the BIG runup we will have into 12/31/13.
Here's some quant...LOL With 80% of hedge funds having returns less than 5% ytd, the peanut add from the drop last week already reversing, and the mean hedge fund return around 4% through 9/30, the thousands of subperforming hedge funds need to fire all of their dip S paid bashers adding no value and put that money to work riding the winners higher into EOY... their incentive payments for pm and apm depend on that! Fet not about us, we've locked down our best year since inception -- over 60% ytd and now only 35% net long but will join the parade higher as things get going starting next week.
HLF has been good for us (core at $38) but a small part of the year for us as almost every one of our bigger allocations has also dramatically outperformed the market and without the noisy Ackman drama. But about the coming RIP for the market into EOY? HLF is likely to be one of the most fun and biggest upsides for us over the next 10 weeks... that's why we were thrilled to add shares on Uncle Carl's team while the morons shorted this down last week. They are about to find themselves under the HLF steamroller, with Uncle Carl driving that rig. LOL
Funny no one on the street or in financial journalism talks about this, but it will be fun to look back come january...
Let's say a 10% runup is likely for the broad tape between now and year end.