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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

  • fluteman_greg fluteman_greg Oct 3, 2013 6:03 PM Flag

    Ackmans dirty little secret......

    Anyone notice that Ackman WAITED to make his announcement a couple days inside the quiet period prior to earnings where he knew Icahn couldn't comment on HLF or add shares. Planned

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    • Greg,

      "Quiet periods" generally refer to the 30 day slot pre ipo where registrants need to avoid discussing the subject securities except with updated filing information. I believe you are referencing the practice of most registrants of avoiding conversations under "open door" investor relations programs whereby they refrain from holding meetings or phone calls with the street for a specified number of days immediately prior to earnings calls. This consistently applied, this practice avoids questions of potential disclosure on material non-public information. Notice that Ramey's comments yesterday did not update his former comments that the auidt and buyback would be announced prior to end of September... he may know updated timing, but he did not specify it as it is now far too close to earnings and he has stifled himself as having non-disseminated information on something the street is waiting for... did you see my high powered bow and arrow analogy?

      The release date is typically late october for them. YHOO has it at Oct 28th.

      Given that icahn now has seats on the BOD, his legal counsel will continue to advise he speak in bridled fashion on HLF. Until the company comments on the buyback and audit, I don't think you'll hear him say much about hlf. As I noted in another thread yesterday, Carl's views on AAPL are illuminating as to the parallel playbook here. Here's the shorthand version.

      The products are wanted by millions and new markets continue to open up while existing markets are far from fully penetrated. Revenue and ebitda growth are robust -- double+ the SP500 -- and yet the stock trades at roughly a market multiple. Stiritz, Icahn and others are sponsoring the story because they see the stock going materially higher. As i wrote yesterday, Chapman see the stock getting to $300 over the foreseeable future as well. All this speaks to using FCF to aggressively buyback stock, which the company has done and will use a debt deal to accelerate.

    • He's smart to close part of his short and move to options. It's will make him more back if he's correct with less out of pocket. Although now he has an end date..

      • 3 Replies to verioinc
      • How do you figure that he will make more back?
        Do you realize the huge amount of money he spent on those puts?

        It doesn't matter, because he has been so wrong with this short play, and has so many more intelligent, mature, expeienced and wealthier billionaires on the long side of HLF, the Ackman has no chance of coming out of this without huge losses!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • a little too late.

      • Ackman is smart like a submarine with screen hatches for ventilation...

        Seriously, he is well educated but his ego drives his errant decision making and that is why he often makes dumb ahssss mistakes.

        For fun though, if he were correct, and he will not be anymore than he was on JCP, he would, from his own mouth, make the same amount of money, BUT THAT IS BEFORE CONSIDERING THE PUT PREMIUM HE PAID TO BUY THE POSITION.

        In context, he is afraid to be slaughtered and called off "over 40%" of his bet.

        The moron is still short 14,400,000 shares, and the likely premium paid of at least $190,000,000 or so ($20 x 9,600,000) is money down the toilet, and eroding by the day out to 2015 and with every dollar higher the stock goes from here.

    • Bingo!!

    • fluteman_

      Dealing with the presence of Ackman is like playing Whack-A-Mole, as his damn head just keeps popping up!

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to skepticalearthling
      • There is one way to beat Ackman. Keep on hitting his head til he perishes. Eventually he will unless he covers his entire HLF stake. He knows HLF is likely to move against him in the future. Not only is he losing hundreds of millions of his investor's money, HLF is affecting his funds overall performance which may lead to investors fleeing his fund and that may very well put his fund out of business. Hedge funds can be on top of the world one year and out of business in 2 years thereafter

62.59-0.01(-0.02%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT