we knew I(con) would try to run the stock up tot 73 to allow freeing up his position - I(con) no more wants to own HLF at this point than Ackman, and 73 lets him get out. We waited for trades in the 73 area and initiated our starting short positions. Then some of us got wind of Ackman's latest move and went all in on our short position on this latest bounce into the $73's with a stop at $77 (5%) for a trade with a reward to risk ratio expected of at least 5:1:. I'll be gone if my stop hits but I'll be heref until HLF goes to 0 if it doesn't
Whenever HLF fundamentals deteriorate, then I am out. If and when HLF is shut down my feds, then I am out - whatever pps may be at that time if and when it occurs. Could be 100+, could be 50, whatever the number is, I will remain long as long as it continues to operate legally or not and continues to grow and surpass earnings estimates each quarter.
For me it will only be over if the company gets declared an illegal pyramid scheme by the FTC. If it is not operating illegally then the stock is destined for $100+. Problem for you is, even if the company is operating illegally, there is no guarantee that the government will open an investigation and take action anytime soon or at all, in which case the stock price will *still* continue to appreciate even if it is illegal. Which is not such a stretch because it is exactly what you must think has been happening all the time for the last 9 months.
The only way the short position wins right now is if the company is operating illegally and the government intervenes in the very near term as opposed to years down the line. If the company is illegal and government will not intervene until later, then why short now when the SP is still appreciating? And if the government will not intervene at all, or if the company is not illegal, then it is a better deal to be long.
There's another way the short position wins and it's what Ackman spotted in the beginning: MLM ( pyramid) companies need a new, bigger base of sales people to keep replacing the ones that leave. Sooner or later there's no one left who want's to be a new distributor of HLF. Ackman is counting on that and then the earnings will decrease. At that point the mutual funds, Soros, Stiritz, and I(con) will jump ship. It will happen, maybe even this coming quarterly report. Are you prepared for that? 12 quarters in a row of increasing earnings, and then a down quarter? The canary in the coal mine. The only way the longs win is if EVERY quarter increases forever.
I already stated under what conditions I'll stop posting: HLF at $77. How about you?
Seems you and a few other's don't like hearing any bad news. But you acting as the board's Gestapo doesn't help others who want to hear both sides. Stop for just a second and ask yourself: What if you're wrong? At least I've listed a few stock prices for you to understand when that might occur. Sell your stock at any of the prices I listed and you might be able to keep some of your gains.