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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 29, 2013 4:45 PM Flag


    Just read a CNBC crawler that HLF shares were down today on "disappointing" 4Q guidance. Talk about stupifying. That is almost as lame as the rest of the gumptards here. LOL

    The Company's new guided range is $1.11 to 1.15, which, at the low end is the lowest and at the high end is the consensus of the IBES published estimates. Now here is the thing: HLF management has made a practice of smashing the snot out of their guidance, something the buyside knows well but the predominantly weak sellside in this sector struggles to grasp. Witness today they bashed, absolutely effin killed their guidance for the Q by about 30%.

    Lay over the top of that the Company has now suggested their guidance does not include, at least for 2014 but likely 4Q as well (we have not called them yet), any additional buybacks, which they carefully pointed out would include no less than their guided floor of $50m of buybacks per Q (they did $110m last Q at w ave of $64/share or some 1.7% of outstanding shares to the chagrin of the dopes suggested they'd do none because of debt indenture covenants -- LOL). So let's consider the start is that they mean AT LEAST $1.17 EPS at the high end, but ignoring that part, the $1.15 is before adjusting for say, what, their min 20% but likely more at 30% beat practice. Using range, we should expect to see somewhere around $1.38-1.50 for 4Q (again, without including the call it 1-2% additional buybacks before the leveraged deal they winked is coming once they get the recertified financials. Have you noticed they ceased using"reaudited" financials in favor of our more apt term of "recertified"? Fun, huh?

    So if all that leaves the average bear feeling confused, BFD. What matters is that once the sellsiders read this post a few times (LOL), they will figure out that even assuming no buybacks for the 4Q, they all, every one of them, need to raise their 4Q estimates by somewhere in the legit range of $.23-35/per share to avoid being WAY too low again.

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