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aTyr Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • insmedholder insmedholder Mar 23, 2011 10:06 AM Flag

    Please feel free to gatecrash the party ...

    My home MB has been subjected to a cynical campaign of censorship over the last couple of years.

    Information or reasoning with the potential to show the investment in an attractive light has been reported as abuse, and removed. We've recently made a major acquisition which has transformed the profile of the investment, and it would appear that certain parties are trying to minimize buying pressure from new investors for as long as they can get away with it.

    Recently I've been hitting these people where it hurts, by alerting other investors to the opportunity - but the 'censors' have been following me, and engineering the removal of info posted on the new boards. Hence the new ID.

    Imo it's highly probable that the investors who engineered our RI removal last year will shortly initiate the reverse procedure - resulting in a significant increase in the share price over the next ten weeks. But there are plenty of other reasons to check this out -

    The foregoing post is likely to be removed - here's a link to another post which will allow easy navigation to the board for those who are interested -

    I'd welcome feeback from anybody here who thinks this opportunity isn't as straightforward as it seems.

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    • Minimum market cap for the Russell 3000 -

      2010 --- $112,000,000
      2009 --- $078,000,000
      2008 --- $167,000,000
      2007 --- $262,000,000
      2006 --- $218,000,000
      2005 --- $183,000,000

      Market cap appreciation concurrent with Insmed's 2009 inclusion (high of day) -

      June 19 - $324,277,460
      June 12 - $272,544,480
      June 05 - $240,999,980

      May 29 - $223,335,060
      May 22 - $211,979,040
      May 15 - $172,863,860
      May 08 - $189,267,000
      May 01 - $189,267,000
      Apr 24 - $161,507,840
      Apr 17 - $151,413,600
      Apr 09 - $119,869,100
      Apr 03 - $117,345,540

      Market cap appreciation in recent weeks (end of day) -

      May 06 - $203,343,960
      Apr 29 - $216,254,690
      Apr 21 - $238,103,610
      Apr 15 - $217,247,820
      Apr 08 - $190,681,520
      Apr 01 - $180,750,190
      Mar 25 - $153,687,310
      Mar 18 - $116,444,830

      Worth noting that Insmed's market cap on April 3 2009 would have qualified the Company for eventual RI inclusion even had it dropped 33% from there. But the market cap had almost doubled from there by the end of May, the data capture point which determines the new membership, and had almost trebled from there by June 19, a week before the funds which track the Russell 3000 were due to buy their shares.

      Many shareholders at the time assumed that the sustained accumulation was in anticipation of favorable Phase II data from the label expansion study of iPlex as a therapy for MMD. But if that was the justification for the increase in the market cap in 2009, what would that tell us about a reasonable market cap for the Company today, when it is already sitting on Arikace Phase II data which evidences efficacy in an inhaled antibiotic never before seen at Phase II or Phase III?

      Q2 2009 -

      1. FDA approved (2005) iPlex for Severe short stature - commercialization prohibited in the U.S., development prohibited in Europe.

      2. Phase II - iPlex label expansion for MMD - data expected mid-year (disappointed).

      3. Approximately $123 million in cash etc.

      4. Anticipated cash burn - unknown, pending the outcome of a strategic review.

      Now -

      1. FDA approved (2005) iPlex for Severe short stature - commercialization prohibited in the U.S., development allowed in Europe.

      2. Phase II / III - PremIplex for Complications of Prematurity - scheduled completion this December (Premacure study).

      3. Phase III due to commence in June - Arikace for CF pulmonary infection.

      4. Phase III due to commence in August - Arikace for NTM infection.

      5. Clinical, regulatory, laboratory and administrations facility.

      6. Approximately $100 million in cash etc.

      7. Anticipated cash burn - primarily the following clinical trial expense (including the external and internal costs associated with each study) -

      $15 - 20 million - CF / US
      $20 - 25 million - CF / EU
      $10 - 12 million - NTM
      $15 - 20 million - Long term safety

      Is a higher market cap warranted? -

      Six informative posts -

      • 1 Reply to longinsm1
      • The market cap is currently $224,696,320.

        The minimum capitalization for inclusion last year was $112,000,000, and the major indices seem to be 20% higher since then.

        Unless a large proportion of the last-reported 200,000 share Short position is covered during the next seven trading days it would appear unlikely that the value of the free float on May 31 will be sufficiently high to generate a level of accumulation this year approaching that seen in 2009. Due to the proportion of currently-restricted shares held by the new VC shareholders the market cap, at a rough guess, would need to increase by at least $100,000,000 by May 31 to generate a similar level of accumulation.

        But conversely - given the number of restricted shares held by the VCs, and the reasons to take a medium/long term view of the investment, it may be far more difficult this year for the buyers for the funds to acquire shares. Barring catastrophes they will have eighteen trading days in June to accumulate the shares they do need before the reconstitution (end of day June 24), and the high-profile presentation scheduled for Day 8 (June 10) would appear to have the potential to generate extra competition for the available shares -

2.805-0.095(-3.28%)1:13 PMEDT