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RCNC Message Board

  • yuopho yuopho Feb 1, 1999 8:12 PM Flag

    Urge to Merge?

    If one reads the prospectus - RCN is not
    interested in mergers of any sort. Fiberoptics networking
    would not come for another 10 years if T or some Cable
    consortium would have its way. The cable/Telco companies
    would love to leave the whole infrastructure of RCN to
    collect dust and continue to use its almost obsolete
    cheap gear to rake in the big margin money. The
    consumer/netizen would be the biggest loser. If I didn't know
    better - I'd think this board is dominated by cable

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    • You lay out a fine superficial analysis for RCNC.
      Please tell us WHO would buy RCNC and how will that
      impact LVLT's view of the world. Clearly money won't be
      the issue for Crowe...he would only sell to a huge
      company (which??) which fits LVLT's long term position in
      the telecom world. Now, LVLT needs revenue to fill
      their network....and/or some large companies need
      LVLT's network. RCNC's future cannot be seperated from
      the elephant dance for the future of LVLT...IMO

    • of the stock price will be determined by their
      revenues. If they continue to grow at or above the expected
      rate, so too will their stock price. If they are doing
      600 million in the end of next year, there is
      no way they will be trading here. The earnings are
      not the story for the next 2 years. At the end of the
      year 2001, the story will be revs and EBIDTA. This is
      how the cable companies are currently being valued.
      For example, Comcast had almost 500 million in EBIDTA
      for their last quarter. They had a small loss before
      a one time gain. After 2001 they will trade at a
      multiple of this number but for now the most important
      thing is revenue and customer growth.

      I am also
      concerned with the shelf offering and have posted many
      times about a dilutive deal. As for the mention of the
      T buyout, all I see happening is that it could add
      some premium to the price that the stock carries for a
      while much the same way that ASND carried a hefty
      premium for over a year. This is a good thing for
      shareholders as it ensures that our stock doesn't get taken
      too cheaply.

      Just my thoughts.

    • a difficult service to deploy to the masses. Bell
      has tried to market ADSL and ISDN with very limited
      success. The broadband services which are successful are
      still the old T1s and the new cable modems. With
      respect to RCNC stock price, I do not agree with those
      who think the stock will significantly rise any time
      soon. The stock will stay flat for a while(2-3 years)
      then a few quarters will show significant progress and
      it will finally take off. A Great stock for a long
      term play(it has the potential to become a $20 billion
      company). As for a buyout, the difficulty with this
      scenario is that the company doing the buying has to deal
      with three- RCNC, LVLT, and David McCourt. Both
      companies are hot-headed(which is good) and know the
      potential of long-term success, they do not want to sell.
      As for Mr. McCourt, he wants to be the CEO of a
      large Corporation. To build one is his only option- He
      won't sell for a long time.

    • INTERACTIVE WEEK- America Online Inc.'s (NYSE:AOL
      - news) upcoming high-speed online access may mean
      bad news for East Coast Internet providers,
      Interactive Week reported in its Feb. 1
      issue. AOL plans
      to charge East Coast customers about $42 monthly for
      low-end asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) service
      through a deal with Bell Atlantic. Other Internet service
      providers may find
      it hard to compete, the magazine

    • Brewer of Mindspring (MSPG) is itching to cover
      the last mile into the home. He stated this on a CNBC
      interview and noted that MSPG was hoping the courts would
      force cable companies to share their lines. Guess what?
      The ISP companies lost the lawsuit and the only way
      MSPG, ELNK and others will cover the last mile is to
      partner with cable or buy RCNC. Another person who may
      takeover RCNC is LVLT who has stated they want to be an
      all in one telephony provider such as RCNC.

    • but rcnc could actually keep growing and the stock will continue to rise. Actually a great buyout possibility for several co. including AT&T which would be a great fit.

    • The last time they created new common shares, the
      value of the existing shares fell. I hope this time
      they value the stock correctly. If they value them at
      say $15 or $13 or $11, who in their right mind would
      pay say $18.50 for mine if I wanted to sell?(Not that
      I want to, I would never) And if the company is
      'competing' with it's shareholders for buyers, who do you
      think will win? What will the value of OUR shares be
      Look, it IS one of the three ways that they
      are trying to raise money to plow into their
      infrastructure for the big future payoff. I just wish they would
      leave our stock alone and pursue only the loans. Last
      year they issued over 5,000,000 new shares of common
      stock and made over $100,000,000 but the shareholders
      paid dearly in the drop in share price. Imagine what
      could happen if 2,3 or 5 times that amount is released?
      David, if your listening, keep looking at the BIG
      picture and don't forget us.

    • Does the pricing and service of AOL command a
      high valuation?. Apparently market thinks so and I'm
      tempted to think along the same lines when I evaluate
      RCNC. Customer base growth is the key here and I think
      RCN will be able to pull it.


    • Hi folks, I'm new to this board and like most of
      you I am either a fan, or long, or both on RCNC. The
      reason it will go up soon is not because of potential
      monopolization of markets, but because inevitably it will be
      bought out. The reason is simple- AT&T's aquisition of
      Time Warner's network means that competitors- there is
      SOMEONE out there- who will buy it if for no other reason
      than to get the Erols customers for ISP's or to show a
      concerted effort into entering the cablenet industry.
      Besides, RCNC is cheap- real cheap.
      For all you people
      out there who actually thought profits and P/E ratios, a company is no longer valued by its potential to
      make money (its the truth of the moment- AMZN's cap is
      10x that of Barnes and Noble anbd Borders combined).
      I'm joking, except in this case, because RCNC will
      never last on its own long enough to make a substantial
      profit. If it decides to be a renegade and only stays w/
      LVLT, its gonna get killed. But, that's not going to
      happen anyway because it will be bought out. And here's
      another reason why-
      The market cap of RCNC is 1.8
      billion. To put that in perspective, AOL's is about 70
      billion, MSFT in the 400 billion range, and even my
      personal favorite (joke of the century), AMZN, is in the
      25-30 billion range (it changes by the hour). Right now
      LVLT owns 40% of that and they aren't so quick to give
      that up. For all we know, double the price may not
      tear them away from the RCNC holdings. Maybe it will,
      but either way, RCNC now has a couple hundred million
      to play with. They can get enough control back to
      possibly be open to courting by someone big. And of
      course, you can expect to get big bucks when that does
      happen. RCNC is so undervalued at 1.8b, I reiterate, 1.8
      billion, that they aren't going to sell so quick for under
      3 or 4 billion. So they may wait until the stock
      rises, maybe invest in something or do a buyback (if
      needed), and poof! they are gone and us longs are all
      going to Cancun for a while.
      I'm a little
      long-winded this time, I know. Just wanted to share some of
      my logic on why I bought this stock and I plan on
      little tidbits of info disseminating every day enough to
      pull it up a little more. Please respond if you have
      any thoughs, and may I just say for the record, I
      recommend that the shorts out there get some pants, it's
      starting to get a little windy...

    • I have from RCNC In Somerville...RCN Cable\ RCN
      Phone\RCN ISP Total bill is $65 vs TimeWarner cable\Bell
      Atlantic Phone\Netcom ISP Total $94. I have had no
      Problems..and love the savings being a frugal invester. I can
      buy a share a month with the least at the
      present price, tomorrow who Knows. It split about a year
      ago $52....the company has grown big time since. Is
      it going to move ...You figure it out!!!! Pricing is
      what makes bundle services work!

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