The most important metrics as far as I am concerned are
1) Increased DCF for 2012 and increased DCF guidance for 2013.
2) Increased distributions on an increasing growth trend going forward
3) Sucessful completion both on time and on budget for announced growth projects
4) A modest increase in Nat gas and NGLS prices. Enough to bump up the returns to MWE's producer customer's bottom line. Not too high to hinder potential exporrt prices
If all of the above happens we will have an orderly increse in MWE financial results that will bump up unit prices on a solid susstainable basis.. Last year's jump to $61.60 resuted in a fall-off to $46. I'm not interested in a 25% drop off just to make the day-traders happy and maybe shake out a lot of long term investors
Steady as she goes is much better. Just keep increasing the distributions while we wait for the growth to take place.
I believe there is a lot of money to be made here if we have patience
B&W - I agree with your comment. The problem is we are not likely to get any increase in NG/NGL prices until 2014 because of processing/export constraints. Look at Seaway. They are cutting back on transport because the Texas Gulf cannot handle the additional 225K bbls a dya right now. Someobody is going to need to figure out we need processing and export on line ASAP.
Also looking at MWE price. I really do not care very much. Happy to reinvest and get a steady increase in distributions. If and until MWE grwoth slows to the 10% of market value there is going to be a significant drag on DCF. That doesn't appear likely until 2015 or maybe 2016. Until you have a market for the NGLs in the NE why would NGL prices go up very much? Lots of ethane bypassing going on now in TX/OK because cost to process is at the uplift benefit. If that is the situation for OK ethane then how is PA ethane with a large ATEX pipeline transport cost going to work in the short run? I understand everything works fine in 2015-2017 with a cracker, export facilities and more infrastucture, but there is certainly short term disruption and it is likely to continue.