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Grupo Simec S.A.B. de C.V. Message Board

  • svartskalla svartskalla Mar 19, 2005 2:17 PM Flag

    Looks like we've seen

    the highs for now.

    Anyone have a crystal ball??

    Will we see 7 again ?

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    • The volume on the options is not that great, but it's building. I find it interesting that a number of people who seem to have little interest in T/A are playing those options?! I find that a bit scary.

    • Thanks for the response. I'm just watching for now. I didn't know about the options trading. That's giving FXEN, another early-stage E&P, a real hard time right now.

    • I traded it very heavily from the long side for over a year for significant profits, up until it hit around 6.00 just before the updated reserve release, whereupon I went short on a valuation call and had to quickly cover for moderate losses.

      Fundamenally, I still believe it is ahead of itself on valuation given the relatively low reserves for the market cap, the 3 successive capped wells, and the disappointing earnings.

      Technically, short interest seems to be building (from zero just a couple months ago, but not yet excessive enough to afford a significant short squeeze) and the introduction of options trading throws another wrench in the works.

      That being said, I would not be surprised to see a run back to the 20 day moving average, but at that level it should encounter serious resistance. At this point it is diddling in the middle between the 20 MA & 50 MA and I would not be a buyer in here. Frankly, I can see $5 (or $5.30 again anyway) before $10. If it does go down to the $5.00 area again, it might precipitate capitulation and a margin squeeze if rampant ethusiam builds again in the mean time.

      As a short-term trade, if it opens up on Monday, you might see that 20 MA this week. Or go short on retracement off that level if that's your cup of tea.

    • By a chartist's point of view, it looks like we could take some time to build the right side of the "W" pattern we are making. Hopefully, sooner than we think. Afterwards, then maybe on to new highs...

    • I was buying Thursday on the bounce off suffort. Looks like it's bottomed to me with firming on very low volume. In fact I've been waiting for the dip to the 5's since I missed the last one when my cash was tied up elsewhere.

      Reports of the demise of the steels are greatly exagerated, IMNO. Looks like a routine correction to me.

      Buying support is my preferred approach...clealy a minority opinion among Yahoo small-cap players who prefer to buy the momo.

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