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Hot Topic Inc. Message Board

  • Ballyconnell Ballyconnell Nov 27, 2000 1:33 PM Flag

    HOTT Short Covering?

    Tremendous volume for HOTT on a day without any
    real news or earnings announcement
    expectation!

    Probably, we're seeing the beginning efforts by traders to
    cover their large short positions. Or, was the business
    this weekend that good?

    Other thoughts?

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    • Sorry about that, but you can check, HOTT is great along with PLCE< AEOS< ANF PSUN BKE< CHBS , CHCS, TJX, ROST, LTD.Have fun today!

    • >>Statistics don't tell the story.
      Everybody is lending the stock so there is an enormous
      short %. The shorts don't like Dabah, and just want to
      get even for Gitano.

      Do we need to check the
      PLCE board to see what you're posting about
      HOTT?

      ed

    • Statistics don't tell the story. Everybody is lending the stock so there is an enormous short %. The shorts don't like Dabah, and just want to get even for Gitano.

    • That's why I sit here and post on these boards!
      Larry

    • Yeah, I own that much, too!
      Larry

    • Whatarun:

      "The short interest is actually
      lower than ANF"

      That's barely true: 2.3M (in
      Oct) vs 2.1M (in Nov). However you must compare it to
      share volume. Average days to cover for HOTT is over 9.
      The same for ANF is less than 2. A dramatic
      difference.

      Mr. O.

    • The short interest is actually lower than
      ANF
      so the shorting may not be HOTT specific, just
      overall industry specific. While the growth is good and
      PE is 20 is favorable for this stock,lower margin
      worries are weighing heavily on this and all retail now.
      This is a specialty/niche retailer stock. Sometimes
      the most accurate measure is the shopping bag test at
      store locations - in an ATL store I saw no one this
      holiday weekend, let alone bags.

    • I think a couple of things are going on. Like,
      retail stocks appear to be becoming as popular now as
      they were unpopular earlier this year. Maybe the folks
      who are dumping their chip stocks are taking some
      short term bets on retail for Xmas.

      But that
      volume today was about 20% of float! Though folks are
      wondering who's buying, I'm wondering who's selling. About
      all I know is it isn't me or Mr. O.

      I wouldn't
      be surprised if the idiots who shorted at $30 are
      trying to cover; however, I bet they're buying from
      marginally smarter shorts who are telling themselves "Duh,
      HOTT is up to $38, so I'll short it and buy back at
      $20"

      ed

      • 1 Reply to edmerx
      • "But that volume today was about 20% of
        float!"

        My understanding is that insiders and institutions
        hold 85% - leaving approx 1.5M for the float. So
        volume was nearly 100%! What's your source of
        information?

        Regarding who's selling, note that there are the same
        number short Oct 15 (1.7M). I believe that there a lot
        of big players working the swings in this stock -
        which of course, is what has been tempting me. Scooter
        has done this successfully a 2-3 times, Sky, and
        several others. Hope they are all long now! If we break
        through old high of +40, several new technical traders
        will also flock in. We have had a few runs at it, but
        haven't quite made it through. Maybe this is the
        time.

        I love it when the technical traders, shorts, and
        fundamentals all come together. I also note that selling on
        the good news was not so bad this last time - I was a
        couple of days off in estimating its recovery, but it
        was just over a week. Perhaps that was because the
        market could handle a 9% SSS better than the 20% we had
        been sustaining. Just think how well we might do if
        November is only 5% as forecast by management!

        Oh
        yeah, I almost forgot: Welcome aboard all new posters.
        (But we do need some intelligent shorts commenting
        from time to time.)

        Mr. O.

    • Up almost three bucks on 1.4M shares. Let's see
      that's about 1.2M shorts covering. I don't think so.
      Looks alot more like instittuional buying to me. Lock
      and load, rock and roll, hang on to this one.

    • Bally: Only news my broker has is recent
      announcement of inside sales as follows:

      Elizabeth
      McLaughlin 32,500
      J. Johnson 40,640
      Orv Madden (family
      trust) 25,000
      Cindy Levett 10,935

      Fear and
      greed playing games with my mind. I've passed up every
      opportunity to do a quick trade and have missed one time
      after another this last year to make a quick buck. Sell
      now at 37 7/8 - buy it back at 36 - make more than I
      made last couple of months working. But this could be
      the time it's going to take off - we're six weeks
      late this year for the HOTT runup. Technical analysis
      says never to sell at this stage - see if it breaks
      through it's old highs.

      Insider sales above are
      of concern - although I'm sure they are just trying
      to get a good price for little of their holdings.
      Gadzooks coming after us also a fundamental problem. What
      a quandry. I could do just some of the shares - but
      I've learned in the past that's the worst torture -
      unhappy no matter which way it goes.

      I know this
      all sounds amateurish - but I've always had a problem
      supressing the gambler streak in me. Oh well, I'm going to
      wait (and maybe get 40!) or my double at 42! or 45!!!!

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