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AMR Corporation Message Board

  • stochastic_resonance stochastic_resonance Aug 13, 1998 11:45 AM Flag


    It looks like AMR is going to end up losing a few hundred million in awards from the Columbia crash. How much will that effect the bottom line?-sr

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    • "Market Monitor"-Mark

      PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark
      Leibovit, editor and publisher of the "Volume Reversal

      KANGAS: Your method of stock market
      forecasting relies strongly on the theory that changes in
      trading volume proceed changes in price.

      LEIBOVIT: Sure were. And you know, the whole point that
      we've been in a bear market is so obvious when you look
      back at what's been happening here since February. And
      basically, we've been in a down trending pattern internally.
      This oscillator combines both volume and

      KANGAS: Well, how 'bout that breakout
      there in the midsummer, in late June?

      That was a false breakout. And here we are, right back
      to new lows again.

      KANGAS: Not a good sign.

      LEIBOVIT: Not a good sign. And in many ways, it mirrors to
      a lesser degree of what we saw in 1987, where you
      had a similar pattern and the market failed. And then
      you had a bigger sell-off. So, still a bear market
      according to this indicator. It basically portrayed the
      year as a very choppy year, Paul, with a downward bias
      into midyear. I was accused of being too bearish.

      KANGAS: You think Acampora was a little late with his
      "sell" signal?

      LEIBOVIT: No question about it.

      KANGAS: That's supposed to make it a down year, isn't it.

      LEIBOVIT: It sure does. And it makes-it worries me a little
      bit because, you know, we were supposed to bounce at
      the year end. Now the question is, where are we going
      to bounce from? Is it from here, or are we going to
      drop to 7800?

      LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, we put
      stuff out in our
      "Short term." We are
      a trading service, one to three days.. So for those
      who are looking for the short term, that's what our
      Web site is about. Then our hot lines.

      LEIBOVIT: it doesn't look a Dow upward explosion 10000.

    • Good idea. You don't need to waite on AMR. It is about 12%
      undervalued according to our model. It may go down some more,
      but, hey, what if it turns around here and never comes back?

    • What will you do if this market turns around and
      goes up?Are you that confident that the market and or
      AMR will continue to go down?Most analyst are saying
      that AMR is oversold and is a good buy at this level.

    • Brother, Can You Spare a Dime? -

      Customers� Margin Debt. (Barron�s)

      Month � Margin
      Debt�. %
      Dec-97 � 126,090 �
      Jan � 127790 � 1.35%
      Feb � 135590 � 7.53%
      Mar � 140340 � 11.30%
      Apr � 140240 � 11.22%
      May � 143600 � 13.89%
      Jun � 146980 � 16.57%

      (This does not include home equity, credit Card and
      bank loans

      American Bubble

      U.S. bank loans for securities
      purchased have increased at 50% rate over the past year.
      Meanwhile, total household debt is at a record percentage of
      the GDP and has grown as percentage of income to 95%
      from 68% over the past 10 years.

      Barron�s August 17, 1998)

      Les Mis�rables


      A creditor is worse than a slave-owner; for the
      master owns only your person, but a creditor owns your
      dignity, and can command it.

      Victor Hugo (1802-85),
      French poet, dramatist, novelist. Marius, in Les
      Mis�rables, "Marius," bk. 5, ch.

      No joke, I am serious�. Brother, Can You Spare a



    • "He's a trader...he seems to know how to make money when a stock is going up and when it is going down."

      Exactly. Money games not investments. He knows nothing about the industry. My point.

    • Grovrat:

      I have no complaint about By
      Volume's opinion re AMR. Contrary to your post, I am
      neither long nor short on AMR, and could care less
      whether By Volume (or anybody else) is right or wrong
      about AMR's direction. My complaint is about the manner
      in which By Volume expresses his opinion. As I
      inferred in my previous post, I am more than happy to have
      a rational discussion about the pros and cons of
      AMR. However, I do not appreciate one individual
      attempting to monopolize this forum with the type of
      nonsensical BS that we have been seeing.

    • Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth
      (keyboard) quiet. You may not like ByVolume because he is
      short and you are long on AMR, but the fact is he is a
      damn good trader. I would invite you to explore his
      posts on the GLM Yahoo board (go back to about June
      3)to learn about another declining stock situation and
      how to make money from it. I would also invite you to
      take a look at the CSNO board if you would like to see
      ByVolume on the long side. He's a trader...he seems to
      know how to make money when a stock is going up and
      when it is going down.

      Your comments are just
      like some of the posters on the GLM board...ByVolume
      kept telling them that the stock could only go down
      and they didn't want to hear. You can't let yourself
      be in love with a have to keep your eyes
      open..."you can't fight the tape".

      So far, he's been
      absolutely right on AMR and you haven't. If you have the
      cash to hold out for the long term, that's great,
      because AMR obviously will rise again (we just don't know
      when). If you have short term cash needs, you may want
      to consider what he says as you make your own
      investment decisions.

      Whatever you do, you really
      ought to stop the name only make
      yourselves look weak.

    • Boris60:

      Why do you and the others on this
      message board try to argue with losers like By Volume?
      One universal truth about him and his ilk is that if
      you ignore them, they will eventually crawl back into
      the hole from whence they came. I would suggest that
      those of us who are interested in a serious and
      productive discussion of AMR not dignify By Volume's
      bullshit with a response.

      As for you, By Volume,
      you are a classic pain in the ass. Get off this board
      and get a life.

    • AMR seems to be holding up pretty well given the
      current market volatility. It has confirmed resistance at
      60-61; large trades on Friday were actually above 61
      (I'm a corporate finace lawyer not a financial
      professional and have no access to Level II data although I do
      have access to a Bloomberg terminal). There is also a
      mention today in a Barron's article on undervalued stocks
      that mentions AMR as a stock that mutual fund managers
      are eyeing as a good buy. I'm worried about the
      overall health of the market though, which does not have
      appeared to have completed its correction. I'm currently
      not in AMR; however I'm looking for an entry point
      (Im currently trading Telebras - which is an endless
      source of good, hair-raising fun). The current
      risk/reward on the short side of AMR is not there in my
      opinion at this time. On the other hand its too early to
      go long, so I watch.Off-topic Prediction: I think
      Bill Clinton will give a bravura performance Monday-
      Tuesday and slalom around the many obstacles facing him
      on Monica. The markets, sensing the end of the
      investigation is at a hand with no change in the status quo
      will jump - up not down.Guesses anyone?

    • "No matter what you think of him you had better
      all swallow your pride and LISTEN UP. You are mere
      rookies in a game against seasoned veterans.If you listen
      you may be able to salvage your hides."

      Rookies? Salvage my hide? Give me a break. Thanks Mom.

      By Volumes normal discourse on the Airline
      Industry is amatuerish and factually incorrect. Technical
      analysis? Maybe. But I invest in fundamentals not Wall
      Street gibberish. I also invest long term and for me to
      lose money on this stock it would have to go alot
      lower than where it is. If you want to discuss the
      industry and American Airlines than take your best shot
      and we are all ears. If you want to spout off on The
      Market, Global Warming, Bill Clintons girlfriends' and
      origins of the dinosaurs than I won't waste my time.

      Julius Maldutis, probably this Country's most respected
      Airline analyst, has just rated AMR, and the industry in
      general, a "buy". By Volume, an anonymous hypster on Yahoo
      who every time he opens his mouth shows his
      ignorance, says we should sell because the planet is going
      out of business.
      Who are you going to listen to?

      Let me guess.

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