PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark
Leibovit, editor and publisher of the "Volume Reversal
KANGAS: Your method of stock market
forecasting relies strongly on the theory that changes in
trading volume proceed changes in price.
LEIBOVIT: Sure were. And you know, the whole point that
we've been in a bear market is so obvious when you look
back at what's been happening here since February. And
basically, we've been in a down trending pattern internally.
This oscillator combines both volume and
KANGAS: Well, how 'bout that breakout
there in the midsummer, in late June?
That was a false breakout. And here we are, right back
to new lows again.
KANGAS: Not a good sign.
LEIBOVIT: Not a good sign. And in many ways, it mirrors to
a lesser degree of what we saw in 1987, where you
had a similar pattern and the market failed. And then
you had a bigger sell-off. So, still a bear market
according to this indicator. It basically portrayed the
year as a very choppy year, Paul, with a downward bias
into midyear. I was accused of being too bearish.
KANGAS: You think Acampora was a little late with his
LEIBOVIT: No question about it.
KANGAS: That's supposed to make it a down year, isn't it.
LEIBOVIT: It sure does. And it makes-it worries me a little
bit because, you know, we were supposed to bounce at
the year end. Now the question is, where are we going
to bounce from? Is it from here, or are we going to
drop to 7800?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, we put
stuff out in our vrsurvey.com
"Short term." We are
a trading service, one to three days.. So for those
who are looking for the short term, that's what our
Web site vrsurvey.com is about. Then our hot lines.
LEIBOVIT: it doesn't look a Dow upward explosion 10000.
What will you do if this market turns around and
goes up?Are you that confident that the market and or
AMR will continue to go down?Most analyst are saying
that AMR is oversold and is a good buy at this level.
Brother, Can You Spare a Dime? -
Customers� Margin Debt. (Barron�s)
Month � Margin
Dec-97 � 126,090 �
Jan � 127790 � 1.35%
Feb � 135590 � 7.53%
Mar � 140340 � 11.30%
Apr � 140240 � 11.22%
May � 143600 � 13.89%
Jun � 146980 � 16.57%
(This does not include home equity, credit Card and
U.S. bank loans for securities
purchased have increased at 50% rate over the past year.
Meanwhile, total household debt is at a record percentage of
the GDP and has grown as percentage of income to 95%
from 68% over the past 10 years.
Barron�s August 17, 1998)
A creditor is worse than a slave-owner; for the
master owns only your person, but a creditor owns your
dignity, and can command it.
Victor Hugo (1802-85),
French poet, dramatist, novelist. Marius, in Les
Mis�rables, "Marius," bk. 5, ch.
No joke, I am serious�. Brother, Can You Spare a
I have no complaint about By
Volume's opinion re AMR. Contrary to your post, I am
neither long nor short on AMR, and could care less
whether By Volume (or anybody else) is right or wrong
about AMR's direction. My complaint is about the manner
in which By Volume expresses his opinion. As I
inferred in my previous post, I am more than happy to have
a rational discussion about the pros and cons of
AMR. However, I do not appreciate one individual
attempting to monopolize this forum with the type of
nonsensical BS that we have been seeing.
Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth
(keyboard) quiet. You may not like ByVolume because he is
short and you are long on AMR, but the fact is he is a
damn good trader. I would invite you to explore his
posts on the GLM Yahoo board (go back to about June
3)to learn about another declining stock situation and
how to make money from it. I would also invite you to
take a look at the CSNO board if you would like to see
ByVolume on the long side. He's a trader...he seems to
know how to make money when a stock is going up and
when it is going down.
Your comments are just
like some of the posters on the GLM board...ByVolume
kept telling them that the stock could only go down
and they didn't want to hear. You can't let yourself
be in love with a stock...you have to keep your eyes
open..."you can't fight the tape".
So far, he's been
absolutely right on AMR and you haven't. If you have the
cash to hold out for the long term, that's great,
because AMR obviously will rise again (we just don't know
when). If you have short term cash needs, you may want
to consider what he says as you make your own
Whatever you do, you really
ought to stop the name calling...you only make
yourselves look weak.
Why do you and the others on this
message board try to argue with losers like By Volume?
One universal truth about him and his ilk is that if
you ignore them, they will eventually crawl back into
the hole from whence they came. I would suggest that
those of us who are interested in a serious and
productive discussion of AMR not dignify By Volume's
bullshit with a response.
As for you, By Volume,
you are a classic pain in the ass. Get off this board
and get a life.
AMR seems to be holding up pretty well given the
current market volatility. It has confirmed resistance at
60-61; large trades on Friday were actually above 61
(I'm a corporate finace lawyer not a financial
professional and have no access to Level II data although I do
have access to a Bloomberg terminal). There is also a
mention today in a Barron's article on undervalued stocks
that mentions AMR as a stock that mutual fund managers
are eyeing as a good buy. I'm worried about the
overall health of the market though, which does not have
appeared to have completed its correction. I'm currently
not in AMR; however I'm looking for an entry point
(Im currently trading Telebras - which is an endless
source of good, hair-raising fun). The current
risk/reward on the short side of AMR is not there in my
opinion at this time. On the other hand its too early to
go long, so I watch.Off-topic Prediction: I think
Bill Clinton will give a bravura performance Monday-
Tuesday and slalom around the many obstacles facing him
on Monica. The markets, sensing the end of the
investigation is at a hand with no change in the status quo
will jump - up not down.Guesses anyone?
"No matter what you think of him you had better
all swallow your pride and LISTEN UP. You are mere
rookies in a game against seasoned veterans.If you listen
you may be able to salvage your hides."
Rookies? Salvage my hide? Give me a break. Thanks Mom.
By Volumes normal discourse on the Airline
Industry is amatuerish and factually incorrect. Technical
analysis? Maybe. But I invest in fundamentals not Wall
Street gibberish. I also invest long term and for me to
lose money on this stock it would have to go alot
lower than where it is. If you want to discuss the
industry and American Airlines than take your best shot
and we are all ears. If you want to spout off on The
Market, Global Warming, Bill Clintons girlfriends' and
origins of the dinosaurs than I won't waste my time.
Julius Maldutis, probably this Country's most respected
Airline analyst, has just rated AMR, and the industry in
general, a "buy". By Volume, an anonymous hypster on Yahoo
who every time he opens his mouth shows his
ignorance, says we should sell because the planet is going
out of business.
Who are you going to listen to?
Let me guess.