This is a 5 bagger with appropriate advertisement/management
Low share volume, yearly revenue is only $100 millions. Imagine if they advertise right and crank it up their sells, this would be a $50 stock easily. They possess one of the greatest achievements in medicine and they simply don't know how to sell it. It's a shame.
Orasure will likely trade in a range for the foreseeable future. $6 could be the high end. This is not just a CEMI vs OSUR story. Orasure has continuing competition from new HIV lab instruments that are now considered 4 th generation HIV testing. Something that CEMI will also eventually offer, but Orasure can't. New entrants from Quidel and other platforms,including futures from BD, will also pull down their $40million HIV professional market. Not as soon as Chembio, but soon....the point is,OTC better not be OSUR's only silver bullet. 24,000 OTC tests is a weak launch number. CEMI is nearing $6/share and will more than double when CLIA waiver is announced. The flood of institutional buyers have yet to raise all of our ships.
Your next step: Sell and take your temporary loss. Buy CEMI before the institutions start buying.
This is a new market with a brand new product. It takes time and money to build the infrastructure necessary for us to see a return. Be patient and take advantage of this low share price....this is going to look like a steal in a year. December sales were 30% higher than November. January 40% higher than December. This trend is going to continue to increase by higher margins over the next few months as product awareness spreads. With a little tunnel vision there is a lot of $$ to be made here. OSUR has no competition in the OTC marketplace. This product will make Orasure a very valuable company.
Meanwhile, another company can get FDA approval much more quickly by making a similar or better test. OSUR's basic methods are not proprietary or patented, the technology is known and others can easily copy and reap the benefit of OSUR's work.
Plus, these are just diagnostic tests, not a treatment which can explode in revenue if successful. Even worse, the lack of accuracy in Orasure tests are unsettling. Of people that were HIV-positive (had previously tested positive), Orasure failed to detect 8% of them. That is almost 1 in 10! That is a lot! That doesn't even consider the three-month window in which a highly infections person with HIV wouldn't test positive, even if the test were 100% accurate. It can take 1-3 months for the anti-bodies to HIV to show up. Therefore, among high risk individuals it would be likely that well over 10% would not be detected as positive. Even worse, there are other rapid tests that are more accurate (the blood #$%$) such that many free clinics have switched from Orasure back to blood #$%$ tests. The only way to be SURE is a viral load test taken at a clinic.
Orasure should change it's name to Are you Sure? No one can be sure whether or not they have HIV from an Orasure test.
They don't have the best product, they don't have a monopoly on rapid tests and FDA approval for another home test kit by a company with real management and advertising know-how will be coming shortly. Is it any wonder this is a sinking ship?
Sells increasing but little to make a difference in balance sheets. Relying on word of mouth to spread this product around will take at least 6 months to a year. It is a monopoly at the moment but WHAT IF other companies are also coming with similar tests? I am a firm believer that when the opportunity is here, they must capitalize it quickly. What if there is a vaccine or cure, great! we are hoping for it but it spells doom for Osur. Timing is very critical; looks like manage screwed up on advertisement which came late after the launch of the OTC oraquick. The choice of Magic Johnson was excellent but they failed to use him to epic proportion. They have a product that can sell on FEAR alone, and they failed miserably.
If money for advertisement and endorsement they need, then they need to get their azzes off the chair and approach different health agencies and ask for governmental awareness funds, organizations that will help advertise it. Banks will even loan out money to advertise it appropriately, at the same time the banks can load up on cheap shares. There are all kinds of ways to make money. But it seems like this management puts an effort to fail; I simply can't believe that anyone can be this incompetent.