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TIBCO Software, Inc. Message Board

  • boz_inc boz_inc Dec 5, 2012 10:33 AM Flag

    Hello 18.00's

    Hit 18.00's intraday...told you guys months ago TIBCO would go down to the 18.00's on a miss. Well there you have it.

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    • your dream come true boz..

      even though i kind of agreed with you, i never thought they will miss though..

      vr seemed quite upbeat.. "doubling down", etc.. the language was too gambly for my taste so i sold in the 30s but was thinking to get back in, based on his optimistic outlook - thanks buffett i didn't..

      i "bet" wall street doesn't like v r much nowadays..

      the question is what's going on?

      1 - did he "double down" for real (company is well) or he was just playing a chicken game with the wall (street) to buy time because things are messed and he needs to figure out how to milk the last $$ out of this dying cash cow?

      2 - is the company's poor execution related to the recent high profile departures or the company is just unable to execute, or what?

      3 - will this trend continue ? where is tibx going? (compared with others - it could still go down another 10-20% from here..)

      4 - could the co recover from this or they will be yet another carcass rolling over the fiscal cliff?

      share your insights boz, from now on i vote you "local guru" on this board - you had more insight than most of us here (analysts included)

      • 1 Reply to dfwetr23765
      • Dfwetr...

        Wall Street didn't like VR for a long long time due to these types of misses in conjunction with the rah rah rhetoric. The rhetoric never matched the results. In the last few year VR reestablished credibility with Wall Street by under promising and over delivering. That came to an end today.

        I agree 100% with you honing in on revealing comment VR made during the last call which was "doubling down". One would not double down if things were going great. That phrase can only be used to double down efforts despite the conflicting indicators. As you say, it is a gamble phrase.

        To answer some of your questions, TIBCO has execution issues. Why? Well a few reasons. It's extremely hard to find people like VR. What do I mean by that? Someone who is great engineer and great at sales. It's really a rare bird. I think a lot of highly technical companies have this issue but there are certain things that can be done to bridge the gap. For starters, you become unbelievably good at marketing which generates more sales leads for sales people. This is needed because engineers are not closers and they need a lot more lead prospects to convert into a sale. TIBCO failes to bring in senior people from the outside that have experience growing companies quickly not to mention it brings fresh ideas in from the outside. IMO, TIBCO made a huge tactical mistake burning a billion in cash retiring shares when they could have made some signicant acquisitions which would have added revenue streams and new technologies.

        TIBCO needs to unleash it true potential by selling. TIBCO turned 38.00 a share from HP close to two years ago. If that included vesting all their outstanding options that was even more asinine decision. That was a HUGE premium. Of course, VR got a pass on this decision. I can go on and on.

        Bottomline, we won't get a glimpse of what is going on until guidance is given. Also, we won't get the full picture until Q1 earnings.

        I suspect, the problem is pretty deep. This was a HUGE miss from TIBCO despite all the rah rah talk from VR on the last call. It is very disturbing that TIBCO was a month into Q4 when they lowered guidance and still missed by a mile. IMO, this points to something structural. I could be wrong but how do you miss that big on our own lower guidance 60 days earlier?

    • well.. there *you* have it boz..

      even though i kind of agreed with you that it could come down on a miss i never really thought they will miss..

      vr seemed fairly upbeat all the time, "doubling down" anytime when things were going down around the world..
      the language ("doubling down") was too gambling-ish for my taste so i sold in the 30s

      was thinking to get in again but at this point i don't know what to believe...
      one thing for sure - i "bet" wall-street doesn't love vivek much...

      imho vivek seemed like a savvy guy, i can't imagine him to over-promise and under-deliver - as that could cost the company a lot more than -20%...

      but overall the story sounds kind of strange imho

      so help me understand this : tibx is announcing that they are not making $$ off a government that managed to spend a few trillions...?? hmmm.. if they can't get gov $$ deals now - i wander how it'll work once the govt spending cuts kick in...???
      ---
      so pls share your thoughts boz, your insights are appreciated
      would be interested to hear your take on :

      1 - was/is vivek "doubling down" for real or he was just playing "smoke and mirrors" with the analysts ?

      2 - is the company's poor execution related to the recent high profile departures from the co or the company is just unable to execute, or what?

      3 - will this trend continue ?where is tibx going? (compared with others - infa comes to mind- it could still go down another 10-20% from here..)

      4 - could the co recover from this or they will be yet another carcass rolling over the fiscal cliff?

    • well.. there *you* have it boz..

      even though i kind of agreed with you that it could come down on a miss i never really thought they will miss..

      the ceo seemed fairly upbeat all the time, "doubling down" anytime when things were going down around the world..
      the language ("doubling down") was too gambling-ish for my taste so i sold in the 30s and moved into infa, but sometimes i thought we have a new buffett on our hands (vr seemed to be doing deals when there was blood in the street)

      was thinking to get in again but at this point i don't know what to believe...
      one thing for sure - i "bet" wall-street doesn't love vivek much...

      imho vivek seemed like a savvy guy, i can't imagine him to over-promise and under-deliver - as that could cost the company a lot more than -20%...

      but overall the story sounds kind of strange imho

      so help me understand this : tibx is announcing that they are not making $$ off a government that managed to spend a few trillions...?? hmmm.. if they can't get gov $$ deals now - i wander how it'll work once the govt spending cuts kick in...???
      ---
      so pls share your thoughts boz, your insights are appreciated
      would be interested to hear your take on :

      1 - was/is vivek "doubling down" for real or he was just playing "smoke and mirrors" with the analysts ?

      2 - is the company's poor execution related to the recent high profile departures from the co or the company is just unable to execute, or what?

      3 - will this trend continue ?where is tibx going? (compared with others - infa comes to mind- it could still go down another 10-20% from here..)

      4 - could the co recover from this or they will be yet another carcass rolling over the fiscal cliff?

 
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