I don't think it would work out well...that is if the stocks were still at inflated levels. Fact is..if they reach 3 tennants per tower at sbac you're looking at around $3-4 per share in cash earnings. We don't have long to wait..from an investment perspective. If these companies manage to steadily progress in their lease up, the stocks definitely won't be in single digits this time next year. If they trip up...is it is a wipeout. I'm betting with a growing contrarian group that is nibbling at these companies and have histories of being risk averse and going for roadkill with a pulse type of stocks.
1) Lehman reiterates Strong Buy on CCI, SBAC. "Buy" on AMT.
2) IBD cover story questions 3G. How fast, how necessary, and when? Says "many [carriers] are sharpening their existing networks." as opposed to going whole-hog into 3G. That would be revenue for us.
Also "widespread 3G launches are set for 2003-2004. It will cost between $500,000 and $1M per cellular base station to upgrade to 3G, says Piper-Jaffray. The U.S. has 86,000 base stations, so the total cost will be huge."
The insights I infer are these. Tower rental is only on the order of 20%-30% of the 3G operating cost (monthly outlay plus equipment amortization) of a cellular base station. Smart antennas can afford to be expensive if they can leverage existing base stations. Reinforces notion that growth of tower demand does not depend on 3G alone.