On a technical and fundamental basis you make a good case. However,I'm guessing that marco economic forces are going to have a lot to say about CRY's stock price. Also, as I said before CRY is buyout anti matter. Until they get earnings visibility beyond 2012, I don't see a big P/E bump any time soon. All just a guess though.
Generally, this is one seriously ill market. Look at the long term chart for the 10 year treasury bond interest rate.
Basically, Greece is chapter 1, in a book with many chapters still to come. The US...perhaps chapter 15, who knows exactly. But when a government is spending $3.9 trillion, taking in taxes of $2.3 trillion, has a cash basis deficit of $1.6 trillion and yet the world is dumb enough to lend the US money at low interest rates something is seriously screwed up.
The US carries bond debt of $14 trillion, with an average interest rate of 2% (way lower that the 50 year average interest rate) with an average debt duration of 4.5 years, the whole think is a ticking time bomb. Like a floating home equity line of credit.
Worse yet, the government numbers are on the cash basis method of accounting. No CPA in their right mind would prepare cash basis financials on the government, when they have serious long term libilities (social security, medicare, pensions, etc.) on the books. Each year the CBO prepares accrual financials on the US government. Simply put, these accrual financial statements, on a "net basis, show assets = $0 and liabilities = $70 trillion (the head of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank thinks the liabilities are north of $100 trillion).
Yet people are willing to lend money to the US at low interest rates!? To and economist/accountant this makes no sense whatsoever, except for the fact people seem to be willing to invest in relative dog crap.
Bottomline: I think CRY, and most other stocks too, are going to follow the overall market lower. I think this market is headed lower...until it puts in a serious bottom...probably when the P/E ratio is between 5 and 10 times and when the the Dow/Gold ratio is under 3 times (Example: $6,000 Dow/$2,000 Gold = 3 times). This will play out over time, but I think it is likely to happen. Rating : (1 Rating)