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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • stodsall stodsall Jan 14, 2012 2:13 PM Flag

    Stock forecasting

    Bought Soda at 31.69 and now just watching it go up. Been waiting for a signal that GMCR was bottoming out. Bollinger bands tight indicating low volitility. Will be watching stoches for entry point. Am purchasing coffee pot for product review for my own analysis as to whether this stock is valued correctly. Will update my forecasts and analysis often for your review and comments. Just a note: I may short or buy depending on my reviews. Nothing personal here only trying to make money.

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    • Ok now, Gap up tomorrow to 76....please!

    • Shares traded above $68 today, Tuesday.

      I expect them to get well above $69, if not $70 on Wednesday, and I hope to see over $72 by Friday.

      All of this a week later than I had expected.

    • More uptrend tomorrow. Hard to say just how much of an uptrend it will quess is we go to 68 and change may hit 69 briefly. But don't expect trend to change for a few days anyway. Still hoping a large gap up.

    • That comment about the trend made me curious and I took a closer look at the charts...I noticed that in fact the 200DMA has flattened out (after having been slanted slightly down since mid-December) and will probably turn up again if panicky traders don't succumb to another round of Einhorn-ish propaganda.

      The 20- and 50-DMA already turned sharply up in January. And the 5-DMA looks ready to resume rising after a 3 day consolidation.

      But it's that 200-DMA that really has my attention (not that I'm trading this much, mostly just all-in). More importantly, that's what is likely to get a lot of institutional investors' attention!

    • oh ya...I'm 100% invested.

    • It appears to be changing trend back to the upside. No tech analysis guys, no time today.
      Wouldn't it be swell if it gapped up tomorrow to 76?

    • Yeah its filling gap now. If the maeket is down today it might drag GMCR down temporary. I see so many short posting now. Not sure if they are upset losing money or new ones. Either way this stock has a lot of haters.

    • Data.
      200 DMA: 76.23
      Last Price: 66.21
      Top Bollinger band: 62.68
      90 DMA: 60.56
      50 DMA: 50.36
      20 DMA: 46.88 and rising
      Lower Bollinger Band: 40.22
      Confirmed Bottom: 40-41
      Fast Stoch Signal: buy
      Slow Stoch Signal: buy
      Special note: The MACD is now above 0.

      Interpretation of data.
      Well wasn’t that a nice surprise for the longs. The earnings report news over-road the technical analysis. These things happen. The price of the stock will likely stay in a range until the upper Bollinger band catches up with the price of the stock. Once it does the stock price should continue to rise to challenge the 200 DMA. What will become the resistance level? The 90 DMA, or will the upper Bollinger band keep it going? The MACD is above the 0 line and as long as it does we should enjoy an upward trend…our friend.
      Unfortunately, I never found another entry point I was waiting for, but enjoyed the rise on my 40%. I may add to my position or find another stock for those funds.

    • Data.
      Top Bollinger band: 51.86
      Last Price: 50.90
      50 DMA: 49.84
      20 DMA: 46.88 and rising
      Lower Bollinger Band: 41.90
      Likely Bottom: 40-41
      Fast Stoch Signal: sell
      Slow Stoch Signal: sell

      Special note: The MACD is now at -.146

      Interpretation of data.
      The downward trend has started with both stoches signaling sell, but the slow stoch has not crossed below the 80 which is the better sell signal. The 50 DMA is still falling which indicates that an upward trend has not been validated. The 20 DMA is rising which may act as support for the stock price. The stock price will likely continue to fall. Has the 50 DMA resistance now become support? We must wait to know. The price has fallen below the upper Bollinger band. It was unlikely to stay above the band for more than 3 days. Are we to fall back to the lower Bollinger for a better entry point? The MACD has been rising for a month to come within fractions of crossing the zero (0) line. Typically, should it cross the 0 line, it usually indicates a start of an uptrend.

      I am long 40% of my planned purchases based on this move.

    • Trending higher yes. I am 40% vested for news jump and 60% unvested for news drop and for lower entry point. Thanks for your feedback. Waiting for a stock to break it 50 DMA is elementary friends. No use jumping in while MDAs are unattainable. Here's to making money, not losing it, or sitting on dead money. Black Jack? While they'll kick you out of the casino counting cards. The stock market? Count away!

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