for the following reasons:
1. Low PE ratio compares to peers.
2. Profitable company (earn $2.40 this year) with +20% growth rate.
3. Currently a leader (almost monopoly with over 80% market share) in the single cup market.
4. Fair value is still at $45/share (already taking in all the bad news, SEC investigation, high inventory, competition from Walmart, KKD. SBUX when paterns expire this SEP., etc.)
5. A take-over target could easily takes it above $50.
I wouldn't worry to much about patent. An artical a while back seem to favor GMCR. I don't think GMCR left themselves bare bones regarding this matter. There were portions of it that were very iffy with connecting strings that could leave GMCR in the game up to 2017. I guess it's up to the Patent Office to interpet. Heaven only knows why GMCR has responded to the situation.............Do we have Bear Trap.........hummmmmmm.
The problem for GMCR is most analysts expectation was too high making it impossible to meet. If you compare revenue between Q2 of 2011 and Q2 of 2012, revenue growth rate was 37%. Growth rate for Q3 is still going to be 22% compare to 2011.
As to the SEC investigation in 2010, GMCR had stated "As noted in our Annual report on form 10k for our fiscal year ended 9/24/11, our independent registered public accountants gave us a clean opinion. For the last two quarters, they have done their review and we continue to comply with general accepted acccounting principles".
Clearly, this is a profitable company with a growth rate at 20+%. With analysts' expectation lower (still a 22% growth) next quarter. Just a meet or slightly beat on both revenue and earning will easily shoot GMCR back above $45-$50 level (specially with 62+% shares available to short are shorted)
This is just my opinion.
Yes....I upgrade it to to SUPER STRONG BUY for the following reasons.....because it is the most undervalued stock in the market right now...bar none. Because it has the word green in its name which is my favorite color. Because shorts will be caught with their panties down during the next two weeks and have to do alot of "splaining" to their wives of how they lost the farm just like Ricky had to "splain" it to Lucy. Doesn't really matter if it goes up, down, sideways or in a circle...we all know where its going to end up soon.....that is between 30 and 40. Shorts have had their turn....ours is just around the bend. See you on the other side of the river sucker shorts...you will be caught without your raft or life preserver and I will be happy to sit there and watch you drown in your own greed. It is also funny how you have several reputable anaylsts that say buy and have a 40 plus price target on GMCR and then one "The Street" not even credible downgrade comes in and it all of a sudden is the truth to end all truths. I find it hilarious....who actually listens to any of those sites that are paid to write that trash anyway. Do your own due diligence and analysis....only one conclusion....GMCR is a winner! Have a great Memorial weekend! CYA!