Earlier this year GMCR was selling for 17. A buyout at twice the price would put it at 34. And few companies get bought out for a one hundred per cent premium. No one nibbled at the low price it was selling for. Why would a company wait until the stock is 28 and now buy it for a big premium? The acquiring co.'s board wouldn't approve a buyout anywhere near what you're posting: 75 or 62. Dream on folks.
Ex had no reason to leave Coke unless there was something on table. He was setup to take over top job. $75 is not a big premium for a company with 70% mkt share in US and expanding globally. Stay tuned.
You don't understand public company M&A. The real key isn't the high or low for the last year relative to the purchase price. The key is at what level will all of the institutional investors sell their shares. If you think they would have sold at a 30% premium to the 52 week low - you are wrong. Better to look at where shares have been accumulated over the last year and put a premium on top of that.
A take out here is a real possibility next year after all of the short noise is dead. I would bet more on Kraft (who blew it with Tassimo) or Nestle (who owns Europe).
The better way to think about the right take-out price is what would it take to get 90% of the institutional investors to want to sell. Start with what the average price they accumulated their shares for over the last year or so and add a 30-40% premium. NONE would have sold for $34 when the stock was $17. They all need at least $55.
I think a take out here is a real possibility as all of the short's arguments are dismantled. I like Kraft or Nestle.
Unless a company knows for sure that they're buying a clean company with no accounting issues, they're not going to make a move (look at the scandal with HPQ and Autonomy that jut surfaced). I for one did buy GMCR at $17 knowing full well that there may have been accounting issues, which is why the price was where it was at the time. As far as the new CEO is concerned, well, one notion might be that Coke want's to find out if the allegations of accounting fraud have substance or just a pipe dream on behalf of those that wanted to make money shorting the stock, and what better way to do this than by placing someone they know and trust on the inside. I am not one to pump up a take-over story, but I am not blind to this possibility either.
Just some more food for thought.