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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Nov 29, 2012 8:54 PM Flag

    Blanford's Form 4 Tonight: A Victory Lap

    LOL at the gumps who think Blanford's option exercise of peanut shares matters...

    Exiting ceo Blanford's Form 4 for the 20,000 shares sold pursuant to the 10b-5 program filed last summer with the stock at $70 is trivial. I'll make fun of the gumps who think that is somehow a problem for the stock later... maybe tomorrow after the numb effers post another 50 times on it. LOL

    For now I'll just mention that Blanford has 117,000 shares left, all of his fully vested options and other incentive shares, and his extensive "retirement" related compensation arrangements to go off to the Carribean if he wants... he obviously is a firm believer in the coming upside for the shares or he would have waited until the new guy is seated next week and then blown out his entire position. Clearly Blanford intends to keep the vast majority of his aggregate holdings for the substantial run higher he sees coming.

    So what's he going to do with his after tax proceeds of say ~$500k? Maybe he wants to buy a lux 50' sailboat for his Carribean jaunts. LOL

    For those who have read our views over time, finished pulling the hedges today and are back to 100% long. We also and added a few more shares as the bush league selldown came on late today. The shares may consolidate a bit around these levels, but they are going to roar as the power of this story becomes highly visible over the next few months. We agree with IBDs well-earned #1 rating in the group.

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    • Longtimers here know our calls up and down on CMG three round trips, and GS two round trips, and TPX two round trips have been exquisitely timed to list a few. The boards have other great calls this year as well.

      Very recently, we've been fabulously correct on timing to pull hedges and get very long both AAPL and GMCR . We will be on FIO as well. FIO is a DEAK POUNDING BUY right now... do the work on it, starting with today's posts and recent Morgan Stanley and First Boston updates. Those two sellsiders actually understand the FIO story.

    • It was under the 10B5? Did not realize... Either way, not terribly concerned. Any smart shorts will use the weakness to cover. Too bad for those who were looking for a clear runway, but personally have to admit it may give me the opportunity to go back to overweight...

      • 2 Replies to djasking
      • Blanford's 10b5 plan was filed last August.

        Read my post again -- anyone who thinks this trivial sale was a reason to sell shares should not be trying to manage their own assets. We, and the 22 of 26 largest holders who added to their positions in GMCR as of September 30 have been right... einhorn and all the gumps ruining this board over the last two months and now finding themselves not only wrong, but also buried here.

        The stock is going higher. Our target remains $40 by EOY. Another 20%+ for 2013 is now highly visible.

      • Anyone selling these shares based on Blanford's Form 4 last night is as dumb as the gumps shorting this over the last two months. Those hoping this will pull back below $30 need to reconsider my point from two weeks ago that 22 of the 26 largest institutional holders either added to or initiated their positions last quarter. Study that list; most are on for the ride back above $50 -- especially now that it is highly visible that we were right and einhorn's butch analysis (as we've detailed here) was wrong, dead wrong.

        Another point worth making is that professional shorts like einhorn likely hedged with long calls, etc., but also with long shares (i.e., that they palnned to sell to shove it down if their themes of pounded sales, margins, cash flows and overline capex played out). The way things played out, the shorts need to be covered in (most likely done now), and more than likely the truly bright amongst them have not only kept offset hedge/long positions, but are adding to them.

        Those who have read our views over time know we were looking for $40 by EOY... that remains very likely as people figure out what is happening in stores/website right now. The shares are going higher after a brief consolidation.

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