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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 6, 2012 11:53 PM Flag

    37's are here again now


    Other than the effects i've been discussing for two days, it may be that einhorning and his disciples (LOL) still believe they will be proved right on GMCR (no one will renew, revs will drop, margins will shrink, no one will buy the new brewers, SBUX will disengage from kcups, and capex will remain too high and cash flow will falter vs reach solid and improving levels). Funny as that sounds to some, SBUX telling their news that they have ramped to 15% kcups market share is somewhat consistent with the short thesis... but SBUX continues to pay the kcups licensing fees and most of the known players have also done that and begun renewing on the new vue brewers. The SBUX share gains may also establish that GMCR needs some more SBUX-like heavy blends and that SBUX really ought to buy SBUX before KO does in say two years. This question will be resolved only when SBUX signs up to pay licensing fees to get on the new Vue line or comes with their own brewers and exits the kcup pods, or, again, just buys GMCR. All part of the fun studying this story going forward.

    On that point, longtimers here know we have owned SBUX several times over the last few years. They have a great story and there are times to get long and others times not. We are not impressed with the Teavanna story, but others are much so. We continue to like their SBUX store growth curve though and so remain on the sidelines for now.

    As I try to say consistently, this stuff is not rocket science, but it is not easy to get it right all the time, and even if one is right on the fundamentals and catalysts, often stocks do not respond timely... if at all.

    Good luck to all the civil posters here.

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