Considering that SodaStream, the market leader on in home carbonated beverages has a market cap of less than $1 Billion, and GMCR added $5 Billion in market cap since Coke announcement on a product that doesn't hit market until 2015, I don't get these levels.....Also, Cokes offer valued the company at around $12 Billion
I doubt your questions are serious. But I will bite. First, the Coke offer at $12Bln was before the world knew they had a deal with Coke! So it valued the new partnership at $0. Most investors put real value on this new opportunity. Second, if you have $300 to spare - buy a SODA machine and a Keurig machine. Then try using them. One is messy to clean, tastes bad, needs replacement parts (CO2), and feels cheap. The coffee experience is great (SBUX thinks so). You sound like someone in the early days of GMCR that didn't understand why a KCup was better than a pot brewer. The vision here is too clear for the idiot shorts to win with the BS.
I own a SODA machine....and I like it. All I'm saying is you've got a player that has been in that market for a while now valued at under $1 billion....and you true believers are valuing this "opportunity" at 5X their value without even seeing the product. That's all I'm saying.....
Sentiment: Strong Sell
With 90% of all soda consumed being away from home, we all know this is a squeeze.
Except for serious fatties, most drink soda at home during get togethers. Burgers can be made at home, but it is a non-effect to the burger business.
All this is unlike coffee, which many do drink at home much more frequently.
So, the soda play is a fad.
I agree, but probably not a safe short. If you believe the stock price doesn't make sense, that just reflects other factors at work that we can't see or control. Some big player at this point is supporting the stock IMO and will collect all the premiums from put holders. After they harvest that $$$ and take their own short positions, they will bring it back down.