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Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fu Message Board

  • lossleader5 lossleader5 Apr 2, 2006 12:46 AM Flag

    bird flu

    A recent research paper stated that humans do not have the receptors in the throat to allow the virus to get into the cells. To infect a human it needs to get deep into the lungs. So this paper said that it may be less of a probable event to have all the mutations occur to allow it to easily infect humans than some worry.

    If this is the case, it may be less a threat than some worry about. ALthough it is a great threat of course to birds.

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    • LL: << ...To infect a human it (H5N1)needs to get deep into the lungs. So this paper said that it may be less of a probable event to have all the mutations occur to allow it to easily infect humans than some worry. >>

      That may be true, but one of the more disturbing things in that MS article to us is that the virus apparently has been found to remain viable in bird feces for a month or more. That's likely more than plenty of time for various other critters to encounter it and for the mutation process to advance.

      As regards deep inhalation of the virus you mention, my wife noted the possibility of a serious inhalation hazard when people mow their lawns--- picking up, pulverizing, and aerosolizing the bird crap contained therein. Can't you visualize all the opportunities the virus would then have for mutation deep in nice, warm, moist human lungs every summer weekend as lawnmowers humm all across America and other lawn-obsessed parts of the western world?

      But that then leads to an even more fundamental question: How can any person with even the rudiments of brain function deny the process of evolution? Hell, it's demonstrated all around us all the time by incidents like birdflu if we have minds open and unindoctrinated by 18th Century ultrafundamentalist religious pseudoscientific beliefs.

      and that then all goes back to a failure of education.....thus that we're still sprialing around the drain is demonstrated once again.


      Cheers, WD

    • As US dollar drops,shouldn't FAX rise?

      Or am I missing something?

      • 2 Replies to blade_runner415
      • It's still fixed income. All that behind the scenes drama doesn't matter too much.

      • <<As US dollar drops,shouldn't FAX rise?

        Or am I missing something? >>

        blade_runner -

        This is generally a true statement, but you must look specifically at a lot of other factors.

        Funds such as FAX and FCO are heavy into Australian dollars. But March wasn't very nice to the Aussie, and it dropped 5% versus the US Dollar. One of the reasons the US Dollar gained was the quarter point rate hike. Another rate hike is expected in May, which may further strengthen the US Dollar.

        The Aussie also was attractive because their interest rates were higher. Likewise, with the US rates going up, the difference is less, so the Aussie isn't quite as attractive. So short term, the outlook for FAX is flat for the next three months.

        Longer term, there will be an end to the US rate hikes, and the pumping of US Dollars all over the world will catch up with the US. I'm buying FAX and FCO on any dips, and collecting the divvies. By mid-summer, I expect the US Dollar to start weakening again, once the realization hits that the rate hikes are over.

        I like FAX and FCO at these prices, which are at or near cyclical lows. Both are cheap, and the reasons will soon be in place to reverse the downtrends. Longer term, FAX will benefit from Australia supplying natural resources to China and Southeast Asia. Those natural resources will keep getting more expensive, bringing cash into Australia and making the currency stronger. FCO will benefit from the same Australian natural resources, but is also a play in Canada, which is supposed to be a big player in shale/sand oils over the next few years.

        I like FCO a little better because its down more, and because FAX has a little more currency exposure with US denominated dollars. Longer term I like both, along with other International Bond funds. Several are paying between 5 and 7 percent, most are well off their highs, and the trend will be reversing later this year. If you buy dips, you can earn a little more, otherwise, get 3 month T-bills and wait for June.

        w$2004

 
FAX
5.23+0.010(+0.19%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT