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Garmin Ltd. Message Board

  • captainbaldo captainbaldo Nov 20, 2012 10:23 AM Flag


    I'm wanting to buy a bunch of Best Buy for some crazy reason-- probably because it has been pounded to the ground. HPQ same sense. Or, are both obsolete? Dunno?

    I'm also wondering when the MATH catches up to the Western World.

    We're fueling a 2% growth rate by borrowing 10% and that only works for so long.

    HPQ is sort of the poster child for why investing in stocks is silly. My CPA for the past 3 decades has always argued that there is no way possible for him to figure out the numbers of a multi-national corporation, be it HPQ o GE or whomever. Too many countries and numbers and here's and there's.

    So HPQ comes out and says we got stiffed on fraud ofr 5 or 6 billion. Dunno how much yet.

    The Enrons, Worldcoms and all the rest come back to mind with frightening majesty.

    I told a family member the other day that he'll come home and some guy will greet him and say, ala Dr. Zhivago, "Comrade, you have had room in this house for 8 families. Now they are here."

    When ain't it tough times? We must to thankful.

    Keep the change you filthy animals!

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    • Recent news reports suggest that if BBY has a decent Xmas selling season, Schulze and his PE partners will get their funding and take BBY private. The Market cap of BBY is now way below GRMN's, despite revenues of $50B/yr.

      Of course, if my Grandma had wheels, she'd be a bus!

      My recent visit to BBY suggests that only a few departments are strong (phones and TV). And, the margins on TV are paper thin. The GPS department was empty, although, when I tracked down a sales rep, he said that GRMN units were selling.

      I have not bought BBY is years. I waiting to see how retail sales reports look over the next week, or two.


    • Buffett has been buying DE, a long term core holding of mine. It's cheap at around $85/sh. because it is perceived as a cyclical, but world food production will be expanding at a healthy clip for years to come. Average dividend support. More competition coming from Asia, but DE is the gold standard and has a very strong dealer network. I have a 18-24 month target of $115.

      Happy Thanksgiving!

      I'm grateful for friends and family including those here (Libs and Conservatives both). And, I'm grateful for the opportunity provided to my family by the greatest Capitalist Democracy in the World History. I'm grateful to Americans who serve here and around the world to keep our country free, prosperous and healthy.

      I just hope that America will continue to provide that same opportunity to future generations.


      • 2 Replies to mlevine44
      • We are near the beginning of a major bear market.
        Odds fair shorting (or buying long term puts) over buying equities.
        DE is a simply a function of high crop prices.
        When farmers make money, they buy or lease farmer equipment to shelter taxes.
        Has nothing to do with feeding the world.
        Most tractors last 50 years.

        I continue to like AAPL.
        Even if the smart phone market is saturated,
        People will always replace their phones, especially if there is no up front costs.
        PC's are being replaced by tablets and Apple Macs.
        Main motivation is immunity to viruses.

        My favorite shorts are restaurant stocks,
        which will be hit hard hard by Obamacare.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • amen to that ML.

    • Stay away from HPQ. This company has been run by a series of idiots. The current idiot, Meg Whitman say to give her 3-5 years and she'll figure it out. If HPQ's problems are so severe that it takes 5 years to straighten out the company, I don't want any part of it. Whitman just about cratered EBAY during her tenure there. Avoid.

      BBY also has poor fundamentals. The cost structure is much higher than the online retailers. BBY needs a strong economy because they are selling discretionary items. Their high end products are really dependent on rising housing prices and an expanding housing market. Not happening anytime soon. BBY has too many stores that are too big and it will take years to get out from under the leases, so that they can fix their business model. BBY has strong cash flow, so they may make it. But, BBY is speculative, and currently, a falling knife.

      I think that we may be headed back into recession Stocks are cheap, but they are cheap for a good reason, and may get cheaper over the near term. My forecast for the next 12 months is plus 5-10 percent.

      I like the big banks hre, because Obama only pretends to be Robin Hood. He's actually their front man.


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