This board appears deserted so I do not expect an
answer anytime soon. REGN has been around for quite a
while, and I have patiently held my shares waiting for
lightning to strike,--- I guess. But it simply seems to
vegetate. Did it not acquire a high-ranking Merck exec to
run it some time ago? What has he been doing, if
anything? Is it poised to go anywhere, or will it simply
continue to lazily chase its tail around in pointless
circles??? Inside opinions invited.
dont' check this board often so this is reply to
your message of 8/12. good meeting you at
re: REGN. Have been out for some time now. seems to
be a lot of support at these levels. If it drifts
back down to 7 or below I'll be looking
re: CYRK. Bought at 5-9/16 and 5-3/8 I think. Sold
10,000 at 5-7/8, 5500 at 6, and have order pending for
4500 more at 6. Not all in my account. I thought it
was CHEAP, tradinag near cash and book and low PE and
if something happens earnings could soar. But I
don't know what the catalyst will be and need my money
(margin calls) elsewhere.
Currently in KIDE
(37,201 shares in total in various accounts), ALDN (looks
like decent value, disappointed in it, it was bouncing
up and down and I bought at 11 or so for a bounce
and it didn't bounce but just declined gradually. I
got into ALDN because I had made money in CHKP and
thought this was an undervalued play with a similar
theme). MIR (cash cow, but disappointed in recent
Bellagio results), MBG (cash cow), TOPP (Pokemon play but
disappointed with cards and performance. Big position
currently underwater). LRW (bought on way down. underwater.
personality flaw--I try to catch falling knives at what I
hope will be the bottom. I'm usually early). My kids
accounts have four holdings: a mutual fund my wife
bought--MFS Emerging Growth Fund; INTC purchased at $7.3125
in 1994, JPM purchased at $27 in 1992, sold at $130
something last year, repurchased at $90 last year: and
KIDE, purchased at an average of about $8.25 in
April/May. All values split adjusted.
He wouldn't have come unless he strongly believed
the future value of his company options would
significantly exceed his earnings potential at Bristol Myers.
He had a layup big income at BMY - to come to REGN
is a significant vote of confidence from someone who
is in a very knowledgeable position about the future
potential of REGN. I have a significantly higher confidence
level in him looking out for his personal interest than
a bunch of 20 something MBA's from P&G.
So regn of course controlled for axokine vs
placebo... but I wonder if they can find an effective way to
control for the various environmental factors (includes
consumption of nuts, chocolate, sleep deprivation,
nervousness, etc) which are believed to trigger herpes cold
sores outbreaks. Looks like a significant angle to me.
the drug Axokine was in Phase I trials.
phase I trial is a toxicology trial. The entire point
is to scale up the dose, and find what doses cause
toxic effects. Then, in Phase II, you scale back to
doses which don't cause toxic effects, to see if you
can get some efficacy.
What was unusual about
this Phase I trial was that it actually showed
efficacy, and at doses which did not cause toxicity; the
company showed that at lower doses, they saw weight loss,
without any side-effects whatsoever.
So then why
did P&G pull out of the trial? I have no
But even if the drug never sees a herpes-positive
patient, that's still about half the market, which the
company now owns 100% - so that's the same amount of
money they would have made without herpes (in that
case, they would have owned 50% of the total
P&G may have said good-bye, but I say hello. I'm
buying more stock.
I read the press release to say that at low doses
they don't see the side effects they see at high doses
and do still get the desired weight loss. P&G is a
cautious old line company that very carefully guards its
image. For them to be directly associated with a drug
that might produce "herpes cold sores " God forbid.
The mgr. that let that happen would have no career
would have a field day as they did with
the old P&G logo and the devil worship issue. The
drug may not have the block buster
potential to get P&G to see past the risk. However, maybe
they have left not insignificant revenue on the table
REGN to make. P&G owns 16% of REGN and wants
them to be successful. This way they cut direct ties
to the drug and help
REGN who does not have the
image issue to worry about, yet.
From the press
"The multiple dose study (daily administration for 14
days) was conducted at doses that were well tolerated
in the single dose
part of the study. Nine
patients and four placebo patients have been completed to
date with no reports of nausea, vomiting,
herpes cold sores. The treated patients lost weight and
had decreased food (caloric) intake compared with
placebo. ``The initial efficacy results are
encouraging but need to be confirmed in our planned Phase II
study, which will include
more patients who will
receive AXOKINE for a significantly longer period of
time,'' said P. Roy Vagelos, M.D.,
Chairman of the Board."
are considered to be obese, but only a few are
malignantly obese. These are the "fat people" you rarely see,
because they are typically confined to either be or a
chair and need help to ambulate. This is a relatively
small group of people, but they are at high risk for
heart disease and diabetes. They may not mind a bit of
HSV reactivation. About 40 to 70% of all Western
world people are HSV infected, though most are in
Yes, if Regn finds a way (maybe a different
dosing regimen?) to get past the current problem
limiting Axokine's potential market (the announced herpes
activation results, which explicitly resulted in the
withdrawal of partner P & G), then Axokine's potential
market size will include "all" obese people once more...
and, as you say, as of now there'll by no troublesome
What does "malignantly obese" mean?