I just don't get why QIHU isnt at $40 if its killing BIDU this much
Every analyst is bailing on BIDU due to QIHU yet QIHU just sits here at a really cheap valuation. I don't see how it can sit much longer as something has got to give and cause a huge run-up in the near future. I can see it jumping to $40 in a week or so after the mystery event. Anyway, market works in weird ways...
Substandard? Give Qihoo some time. Search results are primarily based on a ranking algorithm. It's mathematics, tweaking numbers and rules; it isn't manufacturing where it would take months to rectify. Change the algorithm and recrunch the numbers. You can bet Qihoo is learning and tweaking away currently. Further, Qihoo hasn't completely rolled out the various legs of a typical search engine (eg video, music etc), and you can count on it being released in the days and months to come. At that point, Bidu stands to lose a bigger chunk. That said, imo, there is yet another point to be made - majority of the users aren't aware or savvy enough to differentiate search results; they use the browser/engine which is default, and often subtleties in search rankings don't matter to them.
Given the performance of Bidu & Qihoo stocks in recent times, one might infer that the market is saying let's hedge our bets and watch how this unfolds; so far Bidu has been penalized more on grounds that "it has more to lose" than Qihoo. This match will take several quarters to play out.
Macquarie (Well respected Australian firm and an expert on Asia) came out this morning and said the claim that Baidu is losing market share because of competition is overdone. They rated Baidu at outperform and a 160 PT. It looks as if the hype is wearing off for Qihu and reality setting in. Qihu down over 3% today alone on much higher volume in a week where they made major announcements and lost 8% for the week as of this moment.
Did you read where major investment firm is dumping Qihoo shares during the past two weeks because of backlash in China from users on privacy issues? That could be one reason. The other is that although Qihoo had a pop in search traffic initially, it has given some of that back and the public evaluation on their search is that it is substandard compared to Baidu.