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Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Message Board

  • tianyiinvest2013 tianyiinvest2013 Nov 20, 2013 4:13 PM Flag

    100 call? seriously

    by Nov29th, it can go as high as 100? I don't believe in this.

    Since the Sogou deal got shot down, the fundamental of this stock has changed dramatically. In one year, don't expect meaningful income from search.

    within one year, the mobile gaming distribution business is the sole major source for revenue growth. At the current stock price, I believe the market has already priced in 30% quarterly sequential growth in mobile gaming distribution. I also believe this will be delivered by the company.

    However, I don't think the company can deliver much more than this for Q3&Q4.

    therefore, I predict opening price 92 after earning Monday morning. Then it will slowly dip back to 85.

    Although it's cheap, you will be throwing away your money if you buy calls for Nov29th 100...

    b_dream might still insist it's going to surge to roof after earning. But, where is he now?

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    • I explained this stategy to you yesterday. It's in a way a better play then buying the $80, $85 and even $90 calls. All those strikes are very expensive because of a likely probability of reaching the strike by exp especially with earnings Monday. So buying the $100 calls for very cheap is a better payoff and is as likely as anything at this point. If the market tanks by Friday then all these calls are worthless. All are worthless except the $100 stike is the less cost layout. If QIHU announces something that we have not calculated which is very possbile knowing management, then shares could easliy surpass $100...You are trying to play the pre-earnings while we are looking for a post earnings play. Totally different. However, we do agree that earnings may be a non-event on the metrics since they already commented on them. I like to play the extremes as in a surprise announcement on the call but only risking a small option premium like the $100 calls. If I play the earnings and spend a lot on the $80 or $85's and earnings are expected as both you and I believe then these calls may very well all be worthless - in this situation what was better? To spend $4000 to $7,000 on the $85 or $80 calls or spending $1100 or $550 on the $95 or $100 calls when in the end they can all be worthless!! I think the stock may actually tank on expected earnings and metrics in this market..

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to italiatlt
      • you are right. $100 call is better for post-earning game:

        if post earning price is

        75: 100 call lose 100%, 85 call lose 100%, 80 call lose 90%
        80: 100 call will be down 100%, 85 call will lose 80%, 80 call will lose 50%
        85: 100 call will lose 100%, 85 call lose 50%, 80 call lose 25%
        90: 100 call lose 100%, 85 call gain 20%, 80 call gain 10%
        95: 100 call lose 50%, 85 call gain 100%, 80 call gain 80%
        100: 100 call gain 100%, 85 call gain 200%, 80 call gain 150%
        110: 100 call gain 1000%, 85 call gain 500%, 80 call gain 350%

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