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Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Message Board

  • italiatlt italiatlt Jan 9, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Tiany Did you see the SA article that just came out on QIHU's marketshare est, by China's iResearch?

    can you validate this firm? wow 14.4%. very disappointing...

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Having previously seen the results of various research on the market share of other Chinese internet companies I can assure you that you can throw this particular research on QIHU's market share into the rubbish bin
      The main reason why nobody can give a reliable figure on the market share is because the Chinese market is huge and very fragmented. Practically it is impossible to evaluate the market share of any company because you will have to visit every nook and cranny. The research based on a particular Chinese region says nothing about the whole picture. These are not my words.This is what major analysts like: Piper Jaffray, Deutsche Bank have been saying. Even they cannot provide anything more narrow than a range of 15%-30%.

      The fact that 14.4% figure uses decimal places already shows how ridiculous it is. While all all major analysts cannot give anything better than a wide range these guys managed to calculate the market share up to decimal places. LOL yeah... that's right... Sounds so true (*sarcasm).

      If you have heard about how statistics evaluates probability. Then you would know that such figures are always given within a confidence interval in which 95% of the possible values would be. I bet the confidence interval is something like 5%-25%. They just gave you the expected value of 14.4%. But it could be any number in this interval.

      • 1 Reply to vermut12
      • As a internet data analyst, I should let you know that this number can be very accurate with several decimal number. The difficult part for the analysis the the data cleanup. For this, you have to define some metrics to filter out the data. I believe that different research teams may have different results here.

        It is understandable that the company always picks the data that looks good for them. But I don't think it will hurt if the company can use more numbers. Okay, now the number is low. So what? To me, it means that the stock has a large growth space.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • The SA guys manipulate the market in a big way. They have one guy to come out writing read bad article then another guy then come sout with a good one...look at ONVO as an if they want to own shares, they scare people to steal shares..rinse and repeat..sadly

    • lokks like that SA peice is hitting the stock now under $82. I sold all at $83..

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to italiatlt
      • We need go back to my old argument.

        In search revenue, will QIHU be more like BIDU, or SOHU? If QIHU's share can not reach 30% in CNZZ's, I tend to believe it would be more like SOHU.

        BTW my BAC, C, XLF and FAS are all doing well these days. Hope the trend continues...

        I am considering move some money from GIC to XLF. These are for retirement so I don't want to get into too much risk and don't want to trade too often:-)

        Is XLF a good choice this? I am hoping US real estate will continue to improve in the next couple years.

    • where is it? I don't see anything on chinese media.

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