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American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

  • igsteri igsteri Mar 9, 2013 12:28 PM Flag

    OT: Q to Reik about ARR

    Hi Reik,
    I remember you talking about the " reach around". I'm wondering if you think that's what's happening now with ARR. it surely seems they are keeping her down before X. Two more days till X and ARR is still well under $7. Looking at the chart ARR always drops after X. Any thoughts? Possible divi reduction soon?
    Disclosure: I'm holding shares at $6.65

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    • Follow my model Igster and get out on the Open these next two days. Exit on Open Monday if it is equal to or higher than 6.72(last close), with 50%. Exit remaining 50% on the Open of X-1.

      If less than 6.72 on the Open hold and exit with 50% on the close Monday, with the remaining 50% exit on the Open of X-1.

      Then buy again on the 15th on the close. Rinse and repeat next month. Few are able to do this because their minds/emotions get in the way...;-)


    • Two things for arr

      book got slammed so people are worried there.
      yield is good but that if they dont cut another penny

      next 1 more pay on its monthly (by 3 or 3 for quarterly) so money flow might go towards the quarterlies here instead.

      id buy dips and sell rallies in arr right now - not gonna commit to it - wait for the announce of next 3 months - if it holds - then id find an entry - and even more so - find an entry after others ex so that i can be long arr and short something else if hedge needed.

      id rather be in agnc or mtge

      agnc showed you they maintained their book value and they have room to run or mtge for similar reasons and non agency to go with it.

      • 1 Reply to reikreik
      • Thank you Reik and Doc,
        It's nice to hear from my two favorites.
        Reik, these are great points, indeed it's too risky to hold through X, I'll look for a better entry after X.
        Doc, indeed, the mind/emotions are on the way with the trade.. My plan is to place a sell order for 6.75 and if it doesn't hit all day Monday, I'll sell half at close and the other half on Tuesday am.

        I wish you guys best of luck,

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