I use the broker's platform. It's trying to make a monkey out of me and anyone else trying to make a call, but it's STILL too hard to call. So... just wait, and no matter what opinion I, you, or anyone else has, the stock will still do what it wants. The market is NEVER wrong... only people make mistakes. So just wait and use the tightest uptrend line you can find, on a DAILY chart. But, in the mean time... isn't it a GREAT PROBLEM to have???!!!! How about this kind of problem duck? I was even wrong on silver maybe getting as low as 11, but that's a real nice problem too!!!! The people who keep dissing us on gold and silver are the ONLY ones with problems that just don't match ours. They'll be calling tops for many years to come, and still not be in the right place! I'd rather be having the problems I'm having with TRE that is TOOOOOOOOOOOO risky for the wiser minds. WOW.... that's awfully scary and quite an unnecessary risk. I wish I had advice like THAT from those that make a living HELPING people who don't know what THEY do about stocks. But, they'll always come up with a superlative denial and call it whatever they need to avoid reality. Gotta run. Later.
see if this works...ERS
you don't have meta stock...or tradestation.....you working off your brokers platform only........
when i post these charts..there real time (time i copied em anyway)
i see what your saying re macd on 5 day rolling.........and this thing is hard as heck to call a top.......you are aware they will split it 2/1 on 5/15.......(that in itself is not a + or - ... some run before the split..some after...some crash before..some after...) using your over & under trend/channel lines...i see possible goes to 80 ...
there is one stk..that has totally defied top picking even more so than this one-- look at ERS last few months..
TIE daily chart:
TIE is still a tough call, and the bulls and bears are in the midst of a real tug-o-war. I wish yahoo would update the daily charts like BigCharts does, right through the trading day, but they don't. They do update the 1 and 5 day, intraday's though, but you don't get a complete picture. However there IS a gap opening just over 70 that is being challenged right now. If that opening is filled to the upside, then there will be a continuation in the same direction. But, it's begining to fall back from it, and the next gap below that is a support area. Looking at the 3 month daily, MACD is starting to roll over, and the histogram is weakening. Those are both bearish signs. If you use a straight edge on any very short term intraday charts and draw the line straight up from where you can find the begining of the latest runup, and the line is broken, that's probably the best you can do to get as close to the top if this is indeed THE top, for the current runup. I'm still leaning toward it being a top right now, but it's really very hard to call. Me, I'd rather not try to be too greedy and would probably be satisfied that I've made a healthy profit and take the money and run for now. If I'm premature, that's okay too. You can't go broke taking profits, and you can either wait for the pullback to occur later if it's to be that way, or buy back at a sleightly higher price and hope you can catch an even higher price. That's what trading is all about, if you are trying to thread a needle. But, when the dailies start showing signs of possible tops, and the 10 day MACD isn't confirming the higher price, and the histogram is showing weakness, and the gap is stopping the price advance at that particular place, then I'd definitely leave the last dollar to the brave and reckless, and take at least SOME of my profits off the table. You have to make your own decisions when it comes to that. I hope some of my thinking is helpful and can be of use. I still say, nobody's perfect, and I'm not always right, but I do make money between 80 and 90 percent of the time. That's why I usually take the money to the bank. There's ALWAYS another day to come back out and play.
qwak,JUST4DUMMIES,fOR YOUR EFFORTS TO SHARE knolage A funny AS YOUR reward! :)ON investing NO less!-------------------------------------
On their wedding night, the young bride approached her new husband and
asked for $20.00 for their first lovemaking encounter. In his highly
aroused state, her husband readily agreed.
This scenario was repeated each time they made love, for more than 30
years, with him thinking that it was a cute way for her to afford new
clothes and other incidentals that she needed.
Arriving home around noon one day, she was surprised to find her
husband in a very drunken state. During the next few minutes, he
that his employer was going through a process of corporate downsizing,
and he had been let go. It was unlikely that, at the age of 59, he'd be
able to find another position that paid anywhere near what he'd been
earning, and therefore, they were financially ruined.
Calmly, his wife handed him a bank book which showed more than thirty
years of steady deposits and interest totaling nearly $1 million. Then
she showed him certificates of deposits issued by the bank which were
worth over $2 million, and informed him that they were one of the
depositors in the bank.
She explained that for the more than three decades she had "charged"
him for sex, these holdings had multiplied and these were the results
her savings and investments.
Faced with evidence of cash and investments worth over $3 million, her
husband was so astounded he could barely speak, but finally he found
his voice and blurted out, "If I'd had any idea what you were doing, I
would have given you all my business!"
That's when she shot him.
You know, sometimes, men just don't know when to keep their mouths
now THERE WAS A LADY THAT knew HOW TO invest!;)
I'm not getting much done today because of all the chatter I get myself into, but the rest of my week and weekend will put a damper on this stuff. The simplest and easyest and probably MOST effective tools are the trendlines. It doesn't take a whole lot of time to use them. But, I use as many different tools as possible. The more indicators that agree, the better my chances of being right are. So I use ALL I can find, including the basic fundamentals. But, most of them should point in the same direction, depending on the time period you're focusing on. IE... a 3 day chart is no good if you're focusing on the years to come. Using the bollinger bands is automatic with me. The best indication of a change in direction when using them is when a trend is getting long and they begin to squeeze together. The longer the trend the bigger the move should be. All tools are useful, but none all by themselves is perfect. Using MACD and momentum are best for trend watching. Using stochastics is better when the market is choppy. I also try to incorporate the wave theory, but it is very difficult and can be misleading. Simply, I try to use a 5 wave count when following the current trend, and a 3 wave count for countertrend moves. But, again, always with all the other tools. Canles are fabulous, also if used with other tools. There's nothing easy about making money, but if you're willing to do the work, you can make a lot of money no matter what market you like or dislike.
i know what you're talking about..re drawing trend channels..........i've just never used em...maybe time to investigate...recently i've been looking at bollinger bands...never paid much attention to those either...
i'm here just about everyday too...watching what i own..and looking for things i'd like too own....
>>thanks for your insight J4D..
Sorry about that chart. I happen to have TRE saved on BigCharts and it will only print that one because of it being saved. But, if you just go to BigCharts.com and pull up a 6 month chart you see what I'm talking about.
Forget the 3 day H/S. A decline is overdue, and a 3 day chart is not going to matter now unless your trying to zero in on a good place to sell.
Look at this 6 month chart and run a straight edge from the high in December to the latest high, This will be the top line of the channel. Then draw another from the low in February. Both lines should be pointing in a perfectly aligned and perpendiular uptrend channel. Those are your uptrend lines for the intermediate term. You can do the same thing for the shorter term uptrend channel with the steeper incline. Using Fib... a .382 retracement is the most likely for a pullback below 60 to about 56. But PLEASE do not assume anything is ever certain. You MUST watch the whole thing unfold and make sure nothing unforseen causes it to change. As long as it remains in the newly forming short term downtrend channel, which is not complete until there's a upward bounce followed by a resumption of the decline, while it remains in the current inermediate term uptrend channel. The chances it will decline to what should be a minimum estimated target are strong. Nothing is for sure, but having an edge makes a big difference. If you don't check the progress of any kind of move every day, then you should not attempt to trade. That's why it takes constant attention and lots of analyzing to stay on top of it. If you just want to buy and hold, then don't worry about it. All you need for a long term hold is a long term weekly chart once in a while to see if the fundamentals have changed. I do it all the time with my long term holds in mutual funds and certain stocks, as well as my long term gold and silver bullion holdings. I'm not perfect, anymore than the next guy. But I do a lot of homework and have a big edge on most people. So whose perfect?