QWAK,China has a THOUSAND BILLION to SPEND and as she does all them US DOLLARS will come HOME and DILUTE the value/purchasing power of every DOLLAR and DOLLAR VALUED thing you own!
No BS CPI or SPIN can posably hide that much INFLATION and HYPERINFLATION is not only posable but LIKELY!
david...you are certainly entitled to your opinion....i don't know what more i can add to this conversation...unless perhaps you'd like to give me an example of a few of your recent value plays...( i am assuming KO is one)
>> i guess that wouldn't be quite fair tho..cause at age 36 you've still got 40 or 50 years before they need to pay off..right?
<<The stock market IS a RIGED GAME, it is "The BIG CASINO" and to keep the CASENO open it is nessary for NEW MARKS to keep coming in to maintain the ILUSION!>>
<<The VAST MAJORITY of people should NOT be in the stock market >>
Now if you woulda said, "the vast majority of people should not be PICKING stocks".....i'd agree with that. But index funds at todays SP price of 18x earnings will do fine for folks over long periods of time.
Some of your rant is palatable tho......inflation is here to stay. Over the last decade or so, its just been in remission. It'll be back 70's style sometime......i have no doubt. KO is a great biz to withstand inflation of our currency. This economy is hard-wired for inflation and until we start running surplusses in both federal budgets and current accounts, we should expect continuous and occasional inflationary spikes. And i think we're due.
As I said before, you COULD make a rational argument for silver altho I haven't heard YOU make one yet.
As for gold,
According to Prof Jeremy Siegals, "stocks for the long run" book. Gold has not outpaced inflation over the last 80 years. Stocks have outpaced inflation by about 5%. Gold is a speculators zero-sum game. We'll all just keep passing around the gold and continually paying higher and higher prices from each other for it and everyone is smart. The folks that make money in it will think its because they're smart, the folks that lose in it will sweep it under the rug and go onto pet rocks and hoolahoops. As far as I'm concerned, both winners and losers in gold are clueless.
Did i offend everyone yet?
<<there are many many different ways to make money in the markets... >>
Over a long life, I don't agree with that.
While over short periods of time like 5 years, yes, their are many ways to "make" money. But I'd argue that this "success" is just due mainly to luck. Over long periods of time, i think the value investing approach of buying dollars at less than a dollar is the only rational approach to investing.
Now........you may think that is an arrogant statement.
But it's not arrogant if it is correct.
A disproportionate number of the greatest investors are value investors. Everyone has an opinion, few are rich. This is statistically significant.
ok david...i don't know how we off track...(i was simply commenting on your statement of timing the tide...not your investing.....(other than i hoped you didn't use the tide thinking to invest)i guess i'll go back and re read your post to canoe...
RE: "And all along, i had folks (that remind me of you) tell me that I was talking foolish. It's a tough life being a value investor......but at least you get rich."
>> i may well been one of them (folks)
RE: "It's easy to predict "that" something will happen but nearly impossible to predict "when". "
>>not so as regards the tide...hi/low (which is what i was calling you on)
aside from all that..the main thing..(i think) in regard to investing or trading is to find something that works FOR YOU...and then keep repeating it or stick with it... there are many many different ways to make money in the markets...
QWAK,david, Shure KO will at some point in the future be valued at 100% higher price in FRNs BUT by that time the FRNs will be worth a LOT LESS in value!
New highs in the stock market are virtualy meaningless when the currency is falling FAST in value but they keep the HYPE and EXCITMENT going so the SHEEP can continue to BELIEVE they are WINING when in REALITY they are LOSING agen, as USUAL!
The stock market IS a RIGED GAME, it is "The BIG CASINO" and to keep the CASENO open it is nessary for NEW MARKS to keep coming in to maintain the ILUSION!
The VAST MAJORITY of people should NOT be in the stock market but the BANKERS have so DEBASED the CURRENCY that conventional SAVING in BANKS is an OBVIOUS losing way of saving. SAVING in REAL MONEY ---- physical GOLD and SILVER is the safist and most conveinient way of AVOIDING both the BIG CASINO and the BANKERS and GOVERNMENT robing them by currency DEBASMENT and INFLATION!
You don't get the analogy.
Why didn't you just say so?.....it would have made this conversation much more concise.
The idea is analougous to the fact that many results or real changes in investments or the economy in general are not noticeable (or predictable) over short periods of time, of say......1 day, 1 month, even a few years, etc.
However, over longer periods of time, of say 5 years or longer it is much easier to predict what macro-type events might occur.
For example, it was easy to predict that the folks paying 100, 200 times earnings for companies that only existed a few years (in the late 90's) were going to eventually get burned.............a very high probability event.......however,
I had these conversations in 1996, 97, 98 and 99.
And all along, i had folks (that remind me of you) tell me that I was talking foolish. It's a tough life being a value investor......but at least you get rich.
It's easy to predict "that" something will happen but nearly impossible to predict "when".
ie.......The idea that KO will eventually double in price is virtually a 100% probability. But noone knows when this will happen. And because time is important to investing, we want to buy things cheaper than they're worth so we can minimize this time.
sorry david...i missed your first response......
this isn't gonna work in a real down pour rain storm....(obviously)
BUT...otherwise....if the beach is wet the tide is going out..............
>> beyond that (for rainy days) i have a little clock on the wall that shows hi tide / low tide....AND everything in between
does it make any differance....?
>>can you figure out if the tide is coming in or going out yet???
>>why not respond to the issue...my wealth or lack of wealth has nothing to do with your statement re the tide
>> IF you have never been to a beach...i can "at least" understand your ignorance re that statement
>>my trading methodology is also quite simple.. i only buy stocks that are going up....ie..buy high..sell higher....
............and your stock-picking-methodology is an, ......Errrrrr
Then you must be rich.
Are you a yahoo-anonymous-messageboard posting gazillionaire?
Or a just a mere millionaire?