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DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. Message Board

  • ricwells ricwells Dec 7, 2007 10:09 AM Flag

    Looks like 25 may have been a bottom

    Don't quote me on that!

    I bought shares at 25.15 so at least my money's where my mouth is. How many others on this board can say that. I still don't understand the big drop but it made the shares cheap in my mind which is a good thing for buyers. Big swings without fundamentals or a big event to back it up are short term opportunities.

    If you bought at 34, I feel your pain but it will be there again. Can't tell you when. Perhaps early in 2008?

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    • Hey, these unexplained gyrations seem like "behind the scenes" manipulation to me. Rather than just complain about it I'm going to take advantage of it. Someone with influence is causing the drop so they can get in below its true value. I'm hoping I can ride on their coat tails back up.

      • 1 Reply to ricwells
      • well if you listen to katzenberg on the dwa website at both the merrill and goldman media conferences he is VERY confident is the slate ahead, he is mediocre on bee movie and s3 dvd's as in they could be good or bad. but, on the earnings call its clear they are waiting to deploy cash to do another buyback in q1 to fill in a gap bee movie might have created. also on s3 dvd's they have to be getting huge help from toshiba or they would not have gone exclusive on hd vs blue ray. it just wouldnt make sense. bee movie hasnt been great, tho i liked it much more than the critcs. it's certainly not the disaster thet flushed away was. sam mendes directing shrek the musical on broadway and the shrek the halls dvd are not small events to add to panda and maddy. everything about panda seems strong and i think mcdonalds will promote it well.
        the imax deal today is huge for dwa tho no one seems to notice of course. but imax just signed a 4 picture deal with dwa and if 3D is as good as the difference between black and white and color dwa will be a growth stock. the stock already has anthony noto of goldman and jessica reif cohen of merrill behind it. i wouldnt challenge them when it gets going. it seems so obvious to load up on dwa here and be patient but not many are and that where i dont get it .

    • why would a stock that has already made a dollar in earnings and should make close to that again in the 4th quarter be down 9 in a straight line and down 10% on the year? how can u make money and go down ? they have $250 mill or more for another buyback and stated that although they are cautious on bee and s3 dvd they have a huge slate ahead. panda and maddy2 could out earn s3 and bee. they have great partners in viacom toshiba and msft. yet the stock goes nowhere. im beginning to wonder why via b doesnt sell live action dwa to GE and just buy dwa for $bill. maybe thats why u saw spielberg and geffen get out b/c summer doesnt want to pay them.

      • 2 Replies to anitamdean
      • Lots of possible reasons for the drop. None of them particularly rational. But this market is not being rational. So why should it be different with DWA?
        Reason 1)
        Mediocre Bee Movie results which investors may think will lead to the big disppointment in Q4 07, the same way they were burned by the Flushed Away dud last year.
        The fact that DWA's big money maker (and to some one trick Pony) has now come and gone, and won't be back for another 2 years.
        Reason 2)
        Unkown quantity of Kung Fu Panda which has been hyped alot. If it proves to be a diappointment, it will put DWA right back where they were in terms of needing to find a nother blockbuster franchise movie to counterbalance Shrek.
        Reason 3)
        The market is full of deals right now, particularly in the financial sector which has taken huge hits. Some of these are Fortune 20 blue chip companies whose current valuations are in some cases 50% off their prices 6 months ago. Investors would rather put their money into a big blue chip rather than a animated film company whose valuation always hangs on the success or failure of the small number of films it releases each year.

        I truly think that DWA is way oversold and I look at it as buying opportunity bcreated by an irrational market. Shrek3 DVD sales will carry Q4 no matter what happens to Bee Movie (unless foreign BO is so bad that the movie doesn't break even). In terms of future forecasting, no ones seems to be very focused on Mady2 which earned more than $600mil WW, a BO figure almost any film would love to attain, But compared to DWA's Shrek films, it is a disappointment. If Mady2 does big BO numbers, like the first one, the street will start to look at DWA as a hit maker, like they did with Pixar, and readjust DWA valuations upwards.
        Even more exciting, if Kung FU Panda and Mady2 hit big, this stock will see $40 per share.
        Thre are alot of good things happening at DWA right now. Short of another Allen or Geffen selling spree, shares should start creeping up over the next few weeks as Shrek3 sales numbers get reported.

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