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Taseko Mines Ltd. Message Board

  • tom14100 tom14100 Oct 8, 2009 11:39 PM Flag

    TGB chart and comments


    For now, I think the primary drivers of TGB will be the dollar, the market and the price of copper. Absent specific news, they hold the primary influence on share price of TGB and now more than ever they will hold great sway in TGB’s share price. I say that because I doubt there will be any significant news out of TGB for awhile now. Given the latest news, TGB’s share price has held up extremely well, essentially closing today on strong volume where it closed just prior to the news. The close leaves it with a 61.8% fib retracement of the latest drop. A higher close now would suggest that the full drop from 2.68 will be retraced. The hourly had a strong finish suggesting that is a distinct possibility. Additionally for the bull case, the money flow and accumulation indicators are turning bullish, liking the finish well off the lows yesterday as well as the hammer today. 2.50 is proving to be a strong support level. From a bearish standpoint relative strength is weak and the bollinger bands continue to tighten suggesting the price could be kept in check near the bottom of the channel. Another aspect of relative strength that is bearish is that TGB has been essentially held in check while Copper and the market has been relatively strong. However, the market is in my opinion tiring and I don’t look for much more upside without some sort of pullback or consolidation. The dollar is approaching a support level that I think will stabilize it (for awhile anyway). I figure maybe 3-8% more downside in the dollar. My gut feeling then is that the drivers of TGB have limited upside for the time being and when they correct TGB will also. Typically stocks that underperform the market when the market rises will fall further when the market corrects. In plain words if the market pulls back say 5-10%, then TGB could very well pullback 10-20%. If the market can claw it’s way a bit higher, then perhaps TGB can push on up to the 2.75-2.80 area before correcting and obviously the higher it can push prior to correcting, the better the odds of getting through a correction while staying within the current channel. Should the market decide to roll over from here then the downside for TGB could very well be in the 2.05-2.15 range. For the time being, I view any upside to be tentative, while I consider there to be considerably more downside risk.

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