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Taseko Mines Ltd. Message Board

  • mikeszotak mikeszotak Jun 24, 2011 10:12 AM Flag

    Opinions Long Term

    from some of the staples here, frog, train, those who have been fairly biased good and bad. Even with short-term issues and missed promises, what's your real gut take over a period of severeal years here. Is this a good investment at this price, even if the Gibraltar upgrades don't satisfy all the promises, and with some sort of potential on Prosperity, is this dead money, or does it have some promise here. How big are the risks, how good is the upside. Thanks for your honest thoughts.

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    • I don't know what you mean GJ? I am very bullish on TGB longterm. I just think that the current Mgt team has shown a great deal of ineptitude in the area of operations and politcal savvy. I respect what Russ has done in the past, but there comes a time in nearly every company when the primary driver needs to step aside and let people with more suited skill sets take over.

      I do not agree with the way the politcal climate has turned in Cnada over the last 10 -12 years or so, but it is the reality and it needs to be dealt with as it stands. The courts and the government are NOT going to provide any relief or apply common sense. Also, TGB needs more financial muscle to develop these properties in a quick and economical manner.
      So yes, I think Russ should sell to a bigger outfit for all the reasons I have outlined here previously.

      I am not suggesting Russ roll over and give TGB away. In fact I believe Russ would be crazy to accept less than $9-10 a share though even without a permit for P in hand. In fact, playing his cards correctly he could get more.

      However, if P gets turned down a second time, he would be very fortunate to get $6-7.....

    • Dear John...

      }}}i bet they missed the last
      few days making mula as well lol.{{{

      You win that bet, congrat's on the move and bet. I don't need to catch every move...either direction.

      You could bet I'm glad there is plenty left on the table from the last sell, and be a winner twice...It's the moves in what I invested the proceeds in that concern me today...RBY giving fits at the moment...I only consider it making money after the sale...Never count your money when your settin' at the table...

      Russ would better fit the term "resident negator". After all 90% or more of my posts deal with either results his team has produced or the estimates/targets they have missed. With an occasional aside on the shell games they play to cloud the issues or what feels like disrespect for shareholders and their financial well-being or right to be informed. I would like to see this turn around...It would be nice to have a reason to pick up some shares other than ...last chance at this price...

      When it does I'll talk about it...I believe and invest in what is happening...not on hopes and seemingly undeliverable targets/estimates. You've been here longer than I have, do us a favor and name two of the countless number of same they have delivered on?...Good Fortunes All...frog

    • Dead money. Period. Management sucks. JMO

      • 1 Reply to roberto77479
      • That's a pretty stupid statement, considering the facts. And evidently, a lot of people disagree with you today since it's up substantially after the most recent news. There's way more potential to the upside and very, very little downside risk. The rise in pps today is obviously supportive of the future of TGB. So your blatant statements about "dead money" and bad management are obviously without much merit.

    • Another consideration for this company is the Aley Niobium project. Although encouraging, I think it would be hard to place a value on it at this time.

      "Mineralized drill intercepts range up to over 200 metres in length. Niobium mineralization intersected is highly continuous and close to surface. The extensive body of niobium mineralization indicated by the 2010 drilling is wide open to expansion in at least three directions and to depth."

      • 1 Reply to djkauppinen
      • I maintain the fastest and best way to unclock shareholder value from this company will be to have it sold to a larger multi-resource operator (TCK, VALE, RIO etc) with the money, operating expertise and politcal savvy to monentize this asset rich but operationally challenged company.

        Should you buy, buy based on that idea.

        And yes, I agree TC represents a much more compelling trade right now than TGB. But if you wait until TGB has a tendered offer in hand, it will be too late.

    • Assuming TGB is fairly valued currently...

      Risks to this valuation would include these factors. Gibraltar is a low grade/high cost property, with earnings growth trailing rising Cu price by everwidening margins. With sale to Cariboo TGB went from one-trick pony to 3/4 trick pony. Think corporate costs and their bite out of a shrinking pie. If Cu price levels off or falls a bit and costs continue to run there would be a concern. If Cu drops 20% or more TGB would face almost immediate challenges. There are properties with costs in the range of Gib but they are one of a number of producing properties held. They could continue production at a loss long after Gib would be forced to shut.
      Any upside having to do with operation and profitability of Gib will have tells easy to read.

      Aley is a question mark. There could be value here but w/o more data it isn't known if the material can be mined at a profit. Only way to realize any revenue here is a sale, unless one has a time frame of 5 years+. Upside unknown but any near term would be one-time and of an undetermined amount. Risk is loss of invested exploration costs.

      Prosperity is a no until further notice. Thought it would be a go first time. I was wrong.(if you were around you know I thought management made it much more difficult than need be, see no real change in this regard) Can't give any value here at this time...could change...won't come from anything anyone writes, but rather from hitting benchmarks in a process that has yet to begin.

      After reading this nothing jumps out at me saying buy or sell...

      Mike, a question if I may? What is the difference between good and bad bias? grin...keep smiling...frog

    • Bought my first shares in 2009. I think this is a great LONG term play. Ride it out.

      Here is a link to a very interesting interview:

      Niobium, is a rare earth element, though I am not sure it is one of the 17 that Dines speaks about, but it is up there, and they have it in the ground, in a fairly friendly, logical, rational country. Forget about Prosperity, though that might turn around, don't count on it. Copper is really important too.

    • The summary by Retaoba is pretty accurate IMO although I'm a relative newcomer (beginning September last year). I have about 5% of my portfolio in TGB and may pick up some more in the low 4's. I believe Prosperity will be approved within the next 12 months and think there is little downside risk at this time.

    • If any of us knew for sure, we probably would already be

      I believe I can answer your questions though.

      Taseko is a stock with a lot of inherent value (mineral reserves) in the ground, currently tading at a heavy discount to it's peers largely due to the fact that the current management has been far less than adept at monetizing those assests and running the company from both a P&L and a Public Relations standpoint.

      How is that for a summation?

      There is a high possibility that Taseko may be the target of a takeover bid in the next 5 years at a handsome premium. (Possibility, not probability).

      There is a lower than average probability that the current mangement will be able to monetize the Prosperity property due to an unsympathetic national government and a hostile (to Taseko) native presence. There is a higher than average probability that another respected company (TCK?) could come in here and get the project done fairly quickly. There is a lower than average probability that Taseko would sell off the Prosperity property by itself, seperatly from the entire company, because of the emotional attatchment management has invested into the Prosperity property over the years.

      There is a below average probability that Taseko will be able to monentize the it's Aley and Harmony properties in a timely manner unless they are sold off seperately (based soley on the company's previous track record).

      There is an average probability that Taseko will be able to increase production at it's current Gibralter mine to near the company's stated goals. There is a below average probability that this will happen within Taseko's stated time frame. Both assumptions are based on Taseko's previous track record.

      Rating Summary: Strong but Speculative Buy

0.443-0.007(-1.53%)11:01 AMEDT