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Heckmann Corporation Message Board

  • ex_gs_guy ex_gs_guy Jan 8, 2013 9:46 AM Flag

    Ativo Research initiates HEK coverage at Strong Sell

    Says best price estimate is $2.26 cents and HEK will greatly underperform over next 6 to 12 months.

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    • robertramish Jan 8, 2013 7:11 PM Flag

      they are short and brain dead.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • ATIVO Claim to Fame ESG screening for investments
      What is ESG?
      Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG), describe the three main areas of concern that have been recognized

      Other ESG Approaches
      Values-based investing approaches, such as Socially Responsible Investing, use ESG factors as non-financial “screening” variables. Socially Responsible Investing (SRI), [also known as Responsible Investing, Socially Conscious, or Ethical Investing],

      ATIVO issuing a strong sell on HEK is like this:
      "ATIVO issues a strong sell on NOOF. The spreads are too wide to get behind. It is subject to a take over offer but the push is softening, and the existing share holders want a firm deal. We as Socially Responsible Analists advise our investors to not get into this deal."

      check the stock price on NOOF if you do not get it

    • Who? I dont see that anywhere

    • I have to say $2.26, that is really scary, their low estimate was in the $1 range!

    • Those ore the guys that take out credit Suisses garbage...

      The Outlook

      After a period of growing pains, HEK appears to be well on its way in building a one stop
      environmental services shop. Most of the heavy infrastructure spend on both the legacy
      HEK business and Power Fuels is likely in the rear view mirror and we expect more
      normalized level of capex going forward. It is important to note that capex levels in this
      business can be scaled up or down depending on activity levels as seen over the last few
      months. We believe a normalized pro forma capex level is likely to run $120mm (2/3
      maintenance, 1/3 growth). We estimate ~70% of total revenues are now coming from oil
      shales with the top 10 oil & gas producers as regular customers of HEK.
      Turning to the shale plays, HEK is expanding its product offering to do more of what
      Power Fuels does, such as work around rigs, hauling both mud and cuttings and also
      growing the rental business. In the Eagle Ford, HEK recently signed 2 significant Power
      Fuel customers and revenue synergies from gaining more scale and leveraging Power
      Fuels appear to be bearing fruit. In the Utica (disposal well in start-up stage), HEK just
      started up a trucking operation at the end of Q3 which should begin taking commercial
      water soon.
      It is important to note that HEK is driving up utilization of assets by both selling trucks
      (~50) and moving assets into the Mississippi Lime. Q3 includes an immaterial amount of
      revenue for the Mississippi Lime which we expect to get bigger over time. There are ~3
      yards established and ~40 drivers hired in the area.
      On the gas side, the Haynesville pipeline saw steady sequential volume at Q3 (~50K
      barrels/day) and we continue to believe higher natural gas prices represent significant
      optionality in the stock.
      In the Bakken, HEK expects ~2,500 wells to be drilled in 2013, which is consistent with the
      CS Energy team’s internal expectations. We would note internal rate of returns in the
      Bakken appear to be close to 20%+ even with ~$60 oil price. One factor that has changed
      in the last few months is that the discount to WTI which had been a negative to Bakken
      producers is beginning to change. Bakken producers are delivering oil to the Louisiana
      sweet crude market as refineries are able to accept rail cars. HEK believes the above
      makes up ~$5 to $20/barrel difference.
      It is important to note that we continue to see deferral of capex from certain E&P
      customers which we expect to continue for the balance of the year. This could change in
      2013 but we remain somewhat cautious. On a normalized basis, we expect pro forma
      EBITDA margins to run in the mid 30% range due to higher competition and a lower base
      of volume.
      On the recycling side, Thermo Fluids revenue was up both sequentially and year over year.
      We expect HEK to continue to build ancillary recycling services around its disposal
      capacity going forward. The AWS (Appalachian Water Services) deal represents a cost
      effective way to treat and recycle flow back water in the Marcellus Shale where customers
      are less willing to transport to Ohio. We believe the AWS deal was initiated by one of
      HEK’s major current water customers.
      On capital allocation, we expect more of a focus on execution rather than infrastructure
      build out. We could see some tuck in deals to build other environmental capabilities but
      are not expecting anything large.
      We continue to rate HEK shares Outperform.

      Companies Mentioned (Price as of 12 Nov 12)
      Heckmann Corp. (HEK, $4.24, OUTPERFORM, TP $7.00)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Now thats funny $2.26
      Sounds like they want in on the cheep