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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

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  • mackgreene33 mackgreene33 Apr 26, 2012 12:33 AM Flag

    Seeking Theo Rothchilds Opinion

    Realistically nothing interesting is going to happen with this stock until the turn of 2013 because its going to take time to develop Zerenex. Until then, expect to see a struggle in continuing to develop it, i.e. proving its safety combined with efficacy.

    The latest news release regarding Zerenex offers some minor detail of a study by their Japanese partner in which the objective noted there were no clinically significant findings regarding safety and tolerability. This is an indication that the 12 week study could not address safety to any clinical significance despite it being part of the objective. It may be foretelling of issues to come regarding the relationship between efficacy and safety and execution of a study that can validly address that relationship, and in addition the drug needs to perform within certain boundaries which have yet to be realized.

    Additionally, because most traders and investors are still cognizant of the exaggerated effects of every little pump or bash article on the Perifosine run-up, it's more than likely that any article about KERX is going to cause it to go down unless its an official news release. The news releases themselves are dangerous though because the latest study in Japan specfically notes that it produced no significant clinical findings on safety or tolerance despite it being part of the study objective, however it did come out with top line results on efficacy, but that is simply half the formula and clearly I think there is a lot of work to do on safety. And even if it is safe, it doesn't mean their study will succeed in proving its both safe and effective, at this point its questionable how easy that's going to come along. So its fair to say, it may continue to decline over the next couple months. Then there is the possibility of news regarding trouble with studies which to me is more than likely over this long stretch of time.

    Personally I expect some "pump"/"bash" articles which will be pure nonsense, but will most likely cause the PPS to decline gradually over the months until news of a delay occurs for safety studies.. I have been watching this stock and its management since before the run-up on Perifosine and I think I have a decent idea of how this company operates and what kind of pace they're going to move at.

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