He explains in detail why Zerenex has very little value and no chance. With no other drug left in the pipeline after Perifosine fiasco, he thinks this stock has no chance.
Before anyone make any judgement on any stock, should have solid info substantiated by references.
I read messsages saying KERX pps would be in double digits & other messages go to the extreme of pps is next to zero. Whom to believe? I do not believe either.
Let us assume the worst & best scenarios ( these are just assumptions & not based on substantiated data/info).
1- USA markets:
If for any reason, the FDA does not approve Zerenex: Keryx losses the USA market & thus no revenue from this market.
2- USA markets:
If the FDA approves Z for use within the USA market. Keryx would need to produce, and aggresively market Z to gain market share.
3- Non-USA markets:
We already know one fact as stated by Keryx. Z has passed in Japan & application for NDA is planned in due course. Keryx will get stage payments & subsequently, royalties. I am unaware of how much Z's share of the market outside the USA would be but we all agree that there shall be revenue. How much this revenue? I cannot put any figure & this question needs to be answered by Keryx & partners.
Now, if FDA approves for Z, and if Keryx does a very goog marketing in North America, this would be a BIG plus especially if Z captures a large share of the market. This would create an additional revenue to Zeryx.
Since fundamentals plays a large part on the pps, the higher the earning per share, the greater the pps (P/E Ratio). Note that currently a number of stocks have negative earnings (made loss) but still there is a value in their pps due to other factors.
Without substantiated data, the pps projection is only speculative depending depending on whether the author is a Bull or Bear or anything in between.
You make your own judgement on what to do. For me, I have held my shares for a number of years & continue to hold pending Z' forthcoming news.
Note that I totally ignored Perifosine but if this happens to be revived & is successful in one or two applications, then this is a bonus.
Good luck to all real & genuine investors.
I rest my case......
1) What aluminum ? Zerenex doesn't doesn't have that problem. It is an IRON based phosphate binder. 2) If Zerenex could become a market leader in a $1.5 billion market, why wouldn't big pharma be interested. As far as bundling is concerned, Zerenex offers the dialysis center a potential savings of over $300 per patient per month if it shows an iron benefit. Safety and tolerance issues could also work in Zerenex's favor 3) The company said it has enough money to last until the end of 2013. The Japanese milestone payments are another source of cash. We know for certain that the trial ends in October. Zerenex has an SPA. I can't imagine the FDA slowing things down, but anything is possible. However,if the results of the trial are successful in October, The stock should reflect this success, and a financing shouldn't be a problem.