Anyone take a look at the price of Keryx the three months preceeding announcement of perifosine results vs the three months preceeding the impending announcement of the Z results? Jan 1, 2012-March 30, 2012 (preceding perifosine announcement) the share price increased approximately 110% in anticipation of positive outcomes. Between Oct 1, 2012 -Jan 1, 2013 the share price has basically remained stagnant (preceding Zerenex announcement). If as some claim this stock is to be catapulted to low double digits on the announcement, I am interested in input (intelligent only) regarding the absence of stock movement this late in the game. There are few things posted on this board that all can agree with, but in the end, I think 1) we can ascribe equally to the fact that the PIII results are due sooner than later and possibly any day, and 2) that given all prior studies including those in Japan, there are well supported expectations that the phosphate data will be positive. As such, why are we not seeing positive stock price movement in anticipation of positive outcomes even remotely similar to those observed prior to the perifosine announcement? I understand that we have seen a 100% increase since its low in April, but I believe a substantial portion of this was rebounding from an overreaction to the poor perifosine data. Please do not bore me or other readers with "MMs", "painting the tape", "shorts and longs" etc. The lack of movement is far more fundamental. Is this related to lack of confidence in management? Wanting to see the data before investing further? Is this related to Keryx being a reasonably priced stock until additional guidance can be provided (approval, sales data, buyout,, etc.). Is it that so many are here in anticipation of a buyout that nothing short of this will affect the price? Any other thoughts???
Except for a buyout or partnership, I don't see how the company can reach the finish line without at least one more substantial secondary offering, which will probably be much larger than this one was. After that, it's commercialization. More big bucks and expertise they don't have. At the moment, this looks more like a trade than a long term investment. JMO
And the more Keryx puts into their product.... the more it's going to cost to get the product, if there indeed is a buyer. I liken it to flipping a house, when you put upgrades in, you expect to get that additional money back. Otherwise, why spend the money.
zing zing zing zing you realize your gut is telling you to sell right? you got to do what you feel is right. fwiw i sold half off. today.lloking at risk reward etc im not feeling a homerun any more. but smarter guys than me i know for a fact are still loaded for bear.
IMO the thought process is like fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I took a $60K hit when the data on perifosone came out. I can understand the sentiment of others who might have taken the same hit. I have a small stake now and am hoping some good news will be forthcoming. The longer it takes for the data to come out the more I think its time to unload.
BigO, I can see your points. Keryx has struck out on Sulodexide and Perifosine. Their track record is not good. They have one chance left on Zerenex and appear to be betting the company on it. With no other pipeline drugs, Zerenex is all or nothing. All previous Zerenex trial info suggests success ahead. JTT's NDA Filing suggests success. The FDA Safety Trial Extension suggests success. Keryx choosing not to acquire some other drug compound to pin it's hopes on should Zerenex fail to achieve also, IMO suggests success. Now if Keryx had bought some other compound to hype to raise cash since the Perifosine failure, I would have sold out my 16.5K shares. Benstur and the management team are indeed aligned with their shareholders here. Either they will be richly rewarded by positive Zerenex outcomes or they will be unemployed former execs of a broke company. Place your bets.
I was definitely doing some soul searching on this topic last night. The lack of movemt is definitely hard to understand in light of CLSNs behavior this month. Maybe it really is the 5 dollar threshold for greater ownership that is keeping us down. I know we have at minimum a 500m drug here same as SRPT and with a potentially shorter runway to approval. Upon good results that company was valued at over 1bn before falling back to 600M because it could be years from approval potentially. At a minimum we should see 9 and I still believe we could hit low double digits (short squeeze/spectacular results or both). Here's hoping this hasn't been a massive waste of precious time.
Institutional ownership is down but the interest is still there. The last 2 CC the attendance was out the door. The problem is will Zenerex be another phosphate binder or best in its class with iron storage. The difference is 350 million is sales or 1.5 billion in sales. Big difference in share price.
Japan filling for an NDA for CKD means hit it out the ball park winner to me and 1.5 billion in sales. I am holding till the fat lady sings.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The sad part is that "a massive waste of time" introduces the possibility that the drug may not meet primary and/or secondary endpoints. While I feel this is not the case as I know you do, speculation of such an out come puts this company in the worthless category...aside from the payments due from Japan. I believe there is money to be made here, we just don't want to be too greedy.
The other issue is what if anything could be plaguing the data. This is something we discussed the other day, the EPO factor. While I do not think this would interfere with the primary endpoint (hyperphosphatemia), it could most assuredly interfere with meeting the secondary endpoint(s) i.e. Adverse Events, Concomitant Medication Changes, Vitals and Blood Laboratory Results. These could most assuredly be affected by changes in EPO treatment; if nothing else, making it difficult to ascertain whether or not secondary enpoints have been met. Chaning the game in the middle of the stream is never a good idea. The baselines get all messed up.
I can tell you this, I owned Aezs $20k worth:) and I never felt the pps was properly reflected for the "news" that was being pushed. I owned $54k worth of Kerx around 18 thousand shares, and because I feel that this stock should be around $4.00 by now, if all was liget I decided yesterday to sell everything. I feel that something is very very wrong with the pps. I felt completely decieved with AEZS and I have now decided when it comes to Bio companies I will only play them between the trials up to the last one, and then I am out, meaning I think it is too risky to wait for the very final results where it is win all or lose all, I will make money in-between the swings. Best wishes with whatever you decided to do, Obviously there are many more people feeling the way you and I do, so I decided to share with you my thoughts. Maybe all is well, maybe not but I just thought it is way way to risky considering the way this stock is behaving, and the fact they are a 1 hit wonder, so if it were another company that would not be reduced to .10 cents Per share in the case of bad news I might reconsider. again best wishes.
I can only throw some of my ideas:
1) KERX became totally dependent on Zerenex success and being a one drug company risks are deemed high.
2) Fear. KERX still overhung on perifosine failure.
3) Wanting to see data before being able to evaluate proper corp value.
4) There is still a possibility for failure, although low. In that case KERX can still go sub 2 or $1,5. This is now mitigated with Japanese NDA application. In my mind, given all publicly available data, probability of phase 3 trial failure is low. Still possible but not probable.
5) Data is crucial to determine is Z will be just one of the contenders in which case success still to be seen till first sales figures are in. 18 months...or Z has a good chance for being a blockbuster in its category. As Julia Lewis said in 2010 Z emerges as the main choice of phosphate binder. We wait for the final confirmation.
6) Misunderstandings regarding Renagel going generic and thus undervaluing Z. Lack of attention.
7) Institutional holdings are still low - around 20%. Once they are in stock price can move big. Stock is still below $5 that can limit institutional holdings.
Actually I prefer this type of price action vs. before perifosine.
Here is my take:
A) chance for failure : 0-5% probability, stock goes to $1.5
B) chance for meeting primary endpoints and lack of differentiation compared to other drugs, 5% chance, stock goes nowhere, no reaction in price. $3.
C) meeting primary endpoints, lower pill burden, other benefits without iron benefits, 10% chance, stock goes to $3.5-$4.
D) meeting primary endpoints with marginal iron benefits, 50% chance, stock goes to $4.5-$6
E) meeting primary endpoints with significant iron benefits. 25% chance, stock goes to $7-9.
After Z approval in April KERX goes to $12 and after successful CKD data in Q3 it goes to $15-20.
Based on your breakdown, I am now beginning to think it may make sense to exit and take what little profit I have and wait until after results are out. This way I eliminate all risk and then jump in after results for the run up to $15.00-$20.00. Based on your model I will have time to do this. There will no buyout on the heels of results.....thus giving me a re-entry point. Thanks Gabor, you talked me into selling this at open . GL all.
Nice work. Thinking just like la_cossak... Mayve a little too rich for D) & E)
Looking for $ 5-6 when data released ( Expecting to be today or tomorrow based on Bentsur phrasing at JPM conferences)
Well thought out and complete range of possibilities and probable outcomes.
I will continue to hold through data release and if the results show at least marginal iron benefit (case c) I will hold until buyout or partnership.
Thanks for the clarity.