I do not have a copy of the IPD piece but the contents were communicated to me over the weekend. So . . . I did what I always do in these types of situations and contacted someone a lot smarter than I. In this case, the head of IP at a major DC law firm who used to work for the USPTO and who also has specific expertise in patent term extension law - which is pretty esoteric. Botom line, both ferric citrate and ferric ammonium citrate are ferric salts. Ferric citrate is not a salt of ferric ammonium citrate. The law on this is highly complex but there is clear precedent that an extension should issue. Cf. Photocure v Dudas.
Also, the method of use patent likely to issue for the most recent data is a huge deal. The stronger the data, the more difficult it is to overcome a method of use patent. And these data were shockingly good.
Lastly, many on this board feel that Adam Feuerstein has lacked objectivity on Keryx. I would like to take a moment to acknowledge that he was objective in reporting on this. Thanks for that.
IPD is a very reputable shop so there is a reason that their piece had the effect that it did. But they didn't maintain their standards here, apparently. Time will tell.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think Photocure vs Kappos, which went all the way to the CAFC, is pertinent here. If the USPTO denies NCE (which I don't think they will) status Keryx will have an easy appeal. Also considering that ferric ammonium citrate has completely different pharmacological action than ferric citrate should make NCE status a slamdunk. I also don't think many nephrologists are going to tell their patients to forgo the FDA approved product for an off-the-shelf supplement.
If this does drop to 6, I'll buy it. I'm sorry I missed last week's ride up.
Good Luck everyone.
Mudd, the difference between ferric citrate and ammonium ferric citrate is like night and day. It is no different than saying...sodium chloride and potassium chloride and magnesium chloride and manganese chloride and calcium chloride and ammonium chloride are all much the same thing because they are all chloride salts. Adam F has no idea what he is talking about in this matter. He is merely reading from someone else who also hasn't got a clue. Adam then repeats the idiocy because he has a bone to pick with Keryx....mostly because it proved him wrong...go figure!!!
Don't know what AF comments you are referencing but I was really surprised that he said that the Keryx bear thought that the IP was no big deal.
Regarding the salts, just to get into the weeds a bit, the legal question regarding patent extension may be summarized as whether ferric citrate is a salt of ferric ammonium citrate. No, clearly not. And the fact that both are ferric salts effectively means that patent extension should be available. That is the real key here.
I am not an expert on the NCE question (should have picked a different subject line!), which properly lies with the FDA, but I would be shocked if they did not grant NCE status as Ferriselz is a contrast agent. About as far away from Zerenex as you can get.
I think that computers took over on Friday and the institutional interest here is unbelievably large.
Sentiment: Strong Buy