% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • hipity2001 hipity2001 Jul 19, 2013 1:54 PM Flag

    Poll: When is the most reasonable time for a KERX buyout?

    There's a lot of talk of AMGN prices, but I doubt KERX will ever have the chance. It's hard for me to see a situation where KERX doesn't get bought out. With that said, which of the following is the most reasonable time for a KERX buyout, listed in chronological order:

    A) Immediately
    B) After Japan data is released
    C) After filing of NDA
    D) After Phase 2 CKD results
    E) After Japan approval
    F) After FDA approval
    G) None of the above

    Not listed is EU partnership since there really hasn't been any indication as to when that's going to happen. (I also see the fact that an EU partnership hasn't happened yet as an indication of a buyout). Thanks in advance for any thoughtful comments.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The answer is MOst definitely after FDA approval. There have been enough other company buyout flops which were done after phase 2 studies. There were billion dollar invested and lost because the product failed after buyout. Companies are getting much smarter in not gambling away billions of their monies in any biomedical product until the products are approved by the FDA. The good old day is gone and in reality it was never that good for the investing company who lost monies on failed product

    • Look for a low ball offer of $18 after good ckd results /Japan NDA acceptance but BEFORE patent term extension ruling. After favorable patent term extension and good ckd results we're talking $28 to start off the bidding and $35-50 buyout after all said and done. JMHO.
      All settled by July 2014

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to big_jake_ii
      • I truly believe that it will come prior to FDA approval and also believe that if/ when positive CKD results are announced we double. Then after our positive phase II CKD results are announced we start to field legit offers in the low $40's, in my opinion patent term extension is a non issue and the big boys know. Totally my opinion though and why I have built my position in Keryx. Good luck longs.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I don't think there will be buyout before there is clarity on patent term extension, no company will risk 2B-3B without making sure all the patents are extended till 2022 at least, in my mind till 2015 no buyout for Kerx

      • 3 Replies to a_gasparyan
      • cutugno Jul 19, 2013 9:00 PM Flag

        Actually it is probably the best time for a suitor to try to buyout now. Lower price. The longer it takes the higher the price, as I have said before. The more catalysts achieved the higher the price. Of course an offer would be contingent on catalysts(patents) etc. the fact remains no matter what anyone says is Z is the most effective drug out there, in every aspect, And I could be wrong but RMTI is going to be a bust. No competition there either.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • With regard to pte, I don't see having to wait for a uspto decision before making a business decision. I would imagine any questions about pte would just be factored into the purchase price. I see this as being a similar issue to buying a biotech after phase 2 and before phase 3. Of course there's risk a drug won't be approved but you just factor it in.

      • I agree. The boo birds were able to pound shares after the strong P3 data. Too much noise around any kind of negotiation. No board from a potential suitor is going to take on the risk of quickly losing patent protection. So, until extensions are actually issued, I do not look for a buyout -- and I hope that there is no buyout. In any case, with the pipeline of important events (Items B through F), we should be able to enjoy quite a ride.

        All the very best,

        Sentiment: Buy

    • When phase II results are released, and or some word from Japan. I see buyout offer around 15-18 with shares eventually selling around 20-25. Yes I do hope for more.

    • I say when you own the most shares you ever have--that's what I want.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I think to more accurately value the company we have to see D) After phase 2 CKD results. Should they be positive then the value of the opportunity is much higher. I'm hoping for low 20s and would be pretty satisfied with that outcome! Good luck to all who have withstood all the nonsense that has been associated with this stock.

5.25+0.08(+1.55%)Sep 23 4:00 PMEDT