Much depends on what the new information does to the analysts price targets that have been following the company and have clients that follow their recommendations. Other firms may also intiate coverage on Keryx with BUY or STRONG BUY recs. Since the price targets now are anywhere from $16-$24, I would expect those all to rise by at least 25%(the recs can't go much higher than that before Japan approval--that would be going to far out on a limb for them). A lot also depends on how much publicity and visibility the company can get from the news outlets--PR Newswire, Wall street Journal, CNBC, IBD, Barron's etc. A call to Cramer in the Lightning Round would be a good idea too. His followers pump the price up while they're watching the show. It's going to be a wild and fun coup[le of weeks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
if PII CKD data positive, will easily have 30% gain on single day. Short covering will drive up another 30-50% unrolling positions over next couple days putting it close to 20-22. Then the fun starts as big pharma bids it up for buyout 25's trying to get it on the cheap
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Within a week after the trial data release the stock will already be under attack from shorts. The honeymoon is normally pretty short for biotechs.
We could see an initial 20-30% pop ($14-16), followed by a retracement to a higher low, probably somewhere in the 11-12 range by Thanksgiving.
After news up to $14-$16 ranges than drifts back down to mid $12's by end of year. Starts to ramp up for Japan approval In 1st quarter of 2014 and back to $16-$18 range. With approval we hit $20 - $22. We get attacked by shorts for 6 months until PDUFA hearing in summer of 2014 telling us how this will not get approved blah blah blah and we retrace to $18 range again. After positive PDUFA recommendation we hit reach upper $20's prior to FDA ruling. If PDUFA is unanimous we do not drift down at this point because buyout rumors will circulate. If not unanimous, shorts will attack the few that may not have positively voted and we drop again trying to get people to sell shares. If approved, we get a pop to low $30's and depending on how long it takes to get to market and drive sales will determine it's future going into 2015. That's what I feel will happen in general and I will TRADE around those numbers accordingly gaining shares on the way.
Still wine. If you post, I promise I will use my 'long' handle to good effect. byatch ! My practical advise to you is shatdafakup!
Palmer. I say 14..a 35% hike from here spread over the next couple of weeks looks possible. A triple from here over the next 2 weeks is Utopian..JMO