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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • amiretiredyet1 amiretiredyet1 Feb 10, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    Nobody’s Getting How Big Zerenex Will Be

    “We believe that this predialysis opportunity represents blockbuster potential for Zerenex. To give all of you a sense of the market opportunity with an addressable patient population of over 1.5 million patients in the U.S., CKD stage 3 to 5 patients suffering from iron deficiency anemia with only a 7% market penetration and a price of $10,000 per patient per year, one would exceed $1 billion of sales in pre-dialysis alone, and that’s just for the U.S. We believe that an effective oral drug for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia and elevated phosphorus can actually do much better than 7% penetration.” – Ron Bentsur – 11/5/13 CC

    But the 1.5 million patient figure is very conservative …

    “Roughly 16 million [U.S.] patients are chronic kidney disease stages 3 to 5.” – Ron Bentsur – 1/15/14 JPM Presentation

    “Iron deficiency is extremely common in persons with stage 3, 4 & 5 chronic kidney disease.” -- Dr. Glenn Chertow -- 11/5/13 CC

    So let’s conservatively say there are 3 million Stage 3-5 CKG patients with iron deficiency anemia in the U.S., and that 500,000 of them go for Zerenex. (After all, Zerenex does 6 things for patients VERY well, and does nothing bad, and thus leaves the competition in the dust.)

    500,000 x $10,000 = $5 billion in annual sales.

    Add a conservative 30% for the dialysis & non-CKD anemia markets $5.0B x 1.3 = $6.5B.

    Add 100% for the rest of the world. $6.5B x 2 = $13B. (To keep the math simple, I’m treating Japan like the rest of the world. The end result is about the same.)

    Factor in the 10%/year inflation for phosphate binders. This doubles the sales after 7.2 years. $13B x 2 = $26B/year by 2021.

    Apply a 4x Price/Sales factor to get the projected 2021 market cap: $26B x 4 = $104B. (Stock price = $1,150.)

    Finally, reduce by 20% to factor in dilution & regulatory risk. $1,150 x .8 = $920/share in 2021. Not bad! As stated above, I think I’ve been conservative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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