bottles of Anatabloc sold - per day - by Q3 2012.
And he says that is being conservative.
I like Nuke John's optimistic posts, but to me, that just seems extreme, even impossible, given Q3 starts in less than 3.5 months.
We are now over 6.5 months into selling Anatabloc and are averaging for March roughly 125-130 ORDERS through Star's web site per day and approximately 80-110 ORDERS per day from GNC (using last data before the 999 change). This is after a full six months of being out on the market, Couples endersment, etc.
If we use Nuke John's bottle multiplier of 1.6 bottles per order, that gives us 356 bottles per day in sales using our latest data (the averages of the two above range).
Nuke John figures Star will sell 1,920 bottles per day by Q3 through Star's web site, and 3,200 per day total through GNC (3,000 from their stores).
Without something to cause the sales to EXPLODE upward, like FLINT data published in a medical journal showing UNBELIEVABLE results, I just don't see how we get close to that number, so quickly. Interim results won't do it since it is still the company talking and not an independent, reputible third party.
I'm not trying to bash NJ, and I'm not an IV subscriber so can't respond directly to him and figured I'd throw it out there for others to chew on. I'm predicting we will be doing about 1,000 per day by Q3 or almost triple what we are now doing.
Like the skiing Doctor mentioned yesterday, I think price along with exceptional third-party study results are the major stubling blocks keeping Anatabloc from really taking off. Once we get more confirmation of Anatabloc's effectiveness and a lowering of the price, I do think the sky is the limit. It just will take another year or three. IMO.
Here is NJ's post: http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2013&mn=2784&pt=msg&mid=11539021
While hunting for order numbers on the IV site, I occasionally read NJ's posts, and they are ALWAYS super super duper optimistic. In my view, he gives longs a black eye with his endless pumping.
We will know from our collection of order numbers if his forecast for online orders comes to pass. If that doesn't happen, neither will the rest of his forecast.
So, you and I may be marked down in history as the "ones who refused to believe in Star" if NJ is right on the money.
Here's why I think it will take longer:
The exponential 'hockey stick' curve of rising sales won't occur until Star can officially state what the benefits of Abloc are, and that won't occur until the publication of the Flint study in spring/summer 2013. Only then can they go on TV and really make the case for the product. Only then can they get on Dr. Oz, or Oprah, or some other celebrity's show and start a stampede to the product.
The opposing point of view, to be fair and balanced, is that word of mouth testimonials and the internet will take Abloc viral long before 2013.
I think word of mouth will cause sales to rise, but won't cause the hockey stick explosion.
Bottom line for me: I hope I am proved wrong.
For a nutriceutical on a shoestring budget, I think we are doing
extremely well. It's entirely demand driven. Pharma companies say
that a physician has to be exposed to a drug name about 26 times before they remember it...
An interesting story of how Lipitor almost wasn't. Discovered in
1985, clinical testing in 1992, launched in 1997. The fifth statin
introduced in a crowded marketplace. Interesting read:
The point is we are like 1985, 1992 and 1997 rolled into one
with the benefit of being a nutriceutical and social media. And in
times when a 30 minute social conscience video about a warlord in
Uganda can garner 80 million plus views in a week the possibilities
are ripe. I do think if we do get a tobacco settlement, a bulk of
it should go into marketing. I do also think if it works out there
will be me-too competitors and will get a hard to refuse hostile
takeover from a major.
But for only having Nuke John, Patrick Cox and the dentist Fassel
really shaking the pom poms up to now, we are doing extremely well.
And now it's up to Fred Couples, The Tennis Players and the company
to take it to the next level. Do we hit the hockey stick before the
physicians and insurance coverage are allowed to get involved- who
knows, but a solid maybe.
while I agree that something big has to happen for the sales to reach those levels, Im not certain that we have to wait for publication. Flint is certainly the big study occurring, but others are as well, and results from those other them will help. Also dont underestimate the power of celebrity endorsement. Bottom line, with midterm results on Flint coming summer 2012, with the right marketing and endorsements, that could set off a firestorm of its own. One thing for certain, first quarter 2012 has been a HUGE positive surprise in news so far. There has been a firestorm of news this past 2 months, so I dont discount the possibility of quickly rising sales.
The something to cause sales to explode is already in place. Thousands of people with real results and placement of Anatabloc in GNC (and perhaps other) stores with sales people there passing the word about the astounding effects of Anatabloc. In such cases the curve of rising sales is not a straight line, the rate of change increases rapidly. NukeJohn's optimism may be simple realism.
Like Pfizer's detail reps going to get the
word out to MD's, Anatabloc has not had the
advantage of retails sales reps.
How many people have you told about Anatabloc
by word of mouth? How many enthusiastic message
board types are there out there? We tend to
project our world to the bigger world out there.
An enthusiastic sales rep could probably reach
an equivalent number of people in a busy location
in two days... speculation, yes but I do think the
potential that NJ speaks of is there and
am guardedly optimistic.
kawallski, take chipper's remarks with a grain of salt, he's an options player so his remarks are slanted towards his options play and he does play the bearish side. One of these days he's gonna get caught on the wrong side of the trade, but hey, that's how he plays the game.
Personally, I think Nuke John's projection is optimistic for the GNC sales, but, could be way low overall if other Rx stores pick up Anatabloc for their shelves, like maybe Walgreens, WalMart, etc?
Projections is speculation and the final outcome could be altogether different going forward.
As we know it, sales of Anatabloc is on the rise thru the current sales outlets and chipper can attest to that, he's been doing a great job collecting data here on our board, so for now it's looking really good going forward and if a Walgreens should put Anatabloc on their nationwide stores, well, sales are gonna keep climbing that much more. :)
Izof, you have got the essential point here: "Now ... on the other hand, witness that there is a HALL of a lot to be said about "word of mouth"! IT'S WORKING! And THAT is because of, and a measure of, how very very good the product is." — the echoes in your HALL do not die out. Hell of a point!
What's unusual about this product is that it actually works, and seems to work unusually well. This means a high percentage of people who try it will stick with it and will pass the word. This is not typical of most supplements. It's the foundation stone of some of the optimism expressed by NukeJohn and others. What we have here is not waves of fading enthusiasm, but waves of lasting enthusiasm.
A true viral explosion with "stickiness" is happening, i.e. the early nodes in the explosion do not die out: they keep communicating and activating new nodes. The mathematics of this kind of robust expansion is staggering. I think that may be what is happening with Anatabloc.
Oz, whom I believe is a cardiac surgeon, could
theoretically discuss Anatabloc. Had never watched
his show but he seems to rely on other experts
to do the talking, so less risk for him. But he
seems to be careful and doesn't sell anything on
his website apart from being a clearinghouse for
information on the Ask OZ part.
Of course the top one is Curcumin or turmeric which does
inhibit NF-KB but is also a potent COX II inhibitor.
Perhaps if we bombarded his website with "innocent" questions
about Anatabloc they may do a segment on it. But if people
make claims it will seem dubious and be treated with suspicion
and perhaps quashed.
"In a case like this, for once, large numbers of people will think for themselves and think well. They will not wait for experts to tell them that what's right in front of their eyes is actually there."
leifsmithos- To YOU I say, 'Give The MAN A CIGAR!'
Simple, crystal clear statement of fact on such an amazing product.
Anatabloc...Shifting The Paradigm.
Giving Power for Well Being To The People.
Is 2000 bottles per day versus current 300 per day a hockey stick in the making? I'd say absolutely, yes.
So, we just need your "if this AND if that" to turn into reality.
Maybe you should go buy AAPL if you want surefire reality?
Here's NJ's latest post, where he says that the hockey stick effect is happening RIGHT NOW. Right now, folks.
You write that like we should gather the townfolk together and go hang that SOB! such negativity?
(Funny, but the online orders don't show that effect).
If a convenience store near your house had a sign out front that says "buy the winning lottery ticket TODAY AT 3:45 pm THIS AFTERNOON! I BET YOU WOULD SHOW UP wouldnt you? BUT THE WORLD DOESNT WORK THAT WAY DOES IT?
Here are two posts on IV that show that Abloc is well known in some areas of the country but not others. (Here in SD my phone survey of 5 GNC stores showed that 1 was getting some in 2-3 weeks, while 4 others have never heard of it).
Youre using SD as an example of Anatabloc not being well known? OOOOOOOOOOkay
I'm realistic, yet I do have big hopes for a positive outcome for this company and its stock price as I always do with any small company that Im interested in. If Im not interested I just stay out but hey thats just
me. Now you can call me a pumper because I think theyl sell 2000 bottles a week thru the GNC brick and mortar stores but its not such a longshot is it? Im even going to step out on a limb and say they sell a bottle or two in the great state of SD. sis boom ba rah rah rah!!!!!!! Go TEAM ANATABLOC AND GETM FRED!!!!!
In a case like this, for once, large numbers of people will think for themselves and think well. They will not wait for experts to tell them that what's right in front of their eyes is actually there.